Kindly post your predictions prior to the election.
Absurd.
Just because Nate Silver was right about the outcome, does not mean his percentage chance of victory was accurate. Romney lost by less than 320,000 votes in 4 swing states. Given that 46% of those exit polled said Obama’s response (as endorsed by Chris Christie before that ‘response ‘actually happened) to Hurricane Sandy was a “major factor” is determining their vote, and those people broke 2:1 for Obama, and 15% of those said Sandy was “the most important factor” and they broke 4:1, Sandy was indeed a MAJOR factor that could easily have reversed 70,000 votes in each swing state. Numerically, it may have moved double that number. Without Sandy, and with a ravenous media pushing Obama hard over Benghazi (instead of covering for him, as with CBS, or lying for him, as with Candy Crowley), this election could easily have been Romnney’s. Certainly nowhere near a “91% probability” of loss in the last 24 hours. Which shows the fundamental uselessness of Silver’s methodology to areas such a hedging futures for weather or other risks.
Kindly post your predictions prior to the election.