If you do this, and you don’t do it across all states, all you are doing at the end of the day is giving democrats bigger EC wins. If Cali/NY et all stay in lump sum distribution and states like OH, FL and PA go to the congressional district distribution model you are LESSINGING the counter to the larger states on average more than you are helping.
Yes any state can do what it wants, but there is a reason they are all with the exception of 2 winner take all.
Not if you only do it in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc., where Obama won the EV, but Republicans control the state government. I still wouldn't recommend it, because (a) there are few, if any, states that consistently have R state governments and vote D in Presidential elections (so the benefit is minimal), and (b) such a move would be viewed (rightfully) as the blatant manipulation of the Electoral College for partisan political gain. Ultimately, it would feed into the argument that the Electoral College itself should be abolished.
You are wrong on one point. Today many states are controlled by the votes of one or two large metro areas. Ohio is a good example. All you have to do is win Cleveland, Columbus and Cincy and you can win the state. If you allotted by CD those cities would lose their impact in terms of the electoral college. Each of those cities probably has parts of a couple CDs which also extend into more GOP friendly suburbs. They might still carry their districts but the would have a much smaller impact on the total allotment of Ohio’s total EV vote.
It is not a guarantee of victory, but it really does change the electoral landscape. I seem to remember we won big in the House races in 2008 and held up pretty well this year while losing the statewide races for pres and senate in many states because of the inordinate influence of the large metro areas of the battleground states. I think if you look at the R vs D breakdown in the House right now you would have to say Romney would be pretty happy with that number.
All I know is that I am tired of being disenfranchised by the urban districts of my state, who get basically get to change the vote of my district and award our EV to their candidate.
There are many states like Oregon that would split its EVs between the R’s and D’s rather than giving them all to the D’s.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio would all shave EV’s off to R’s.