Amazing if true. The numbers showing Obama was going to win were there for weeks. RCP polls showed it. Nate Silver was showing it. Even our own Freeper jackmercer showed the polls were going Obama’s way for weeks. You can read jackmercer’s stuff right here on FR. Jack’s just some guy doing this at home & he knew more than Romney’s team, wow.
I hate to admit this but that Nate Silver and that other guy at Princeton U were spot on accurate to a frigging tee.
There is a history of polls being off, and we are always on the down side. I will ignore Dick Morris. His history is mixed, but he navigated Clinton for years successfully with poll data. I’ll ignore Rove’s prediction, too, as he also missed 2006 in a big way. When I heard Michael Barone say Romney big, that was significant. I think many felt the polls underestimated GOP turnout, either due to polling inaccuracy or to purposefully drive public opinion. It didn’t... the polls pegged that there was a significant number of base voters who weren’t going to show up.
I limited myself to only analysing Rasmussen's polls, and even with that the best I could do was give Romney a 45% chance of winning. Given that Romney performed at the P01 point in my model, Romney's chances of winning, in reality, were much lower than Rasmussen's polls suggested.
I'll have to look for a new source of polling data for the next time.
-PJ