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What Happened in Ohio (correct but unwittingly hilarious)
National Review Online ^ | 7 November 2012 | Matt Meyer

Posted on 11/08/2012 12:51:50 PM PST by Eric Pode of Croydon

Over the next few days, I will cover a variety of issues I believe explain what happened in Ohio in 2012. The first issue starts at the very beginning of the process in Ohio. Now, it is always tricky to extrapolate primary data to general-election data, but I believe two data points, discussed below, from Ohio’s primary foreshadowed problems for Republicans and in the base with Governor Mitt Romney.

First, in the 2008 fully contested Democratic primary between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama, 2,386,945 Ohioans cast ballots. Remember, Ohio has open primaries where voters select either a Democratic or a Republican ballot and vote in the primary race they select. Fast-forward four years to the fully contested 2012 Republican primary between Senator Rick Santorum and Governor Mitt Romney (and a few others whose names remained on the ballot). In that contest, 1,213,879 Ohioans vote. As a point of comparison, in 2000, 1,397,528 Ohioans vote in the Republican primary won by Texas governor George W. Bush. That is, nearly 200,000 more votes were cast twelve years earlier.

Comparing the 2008 Democratic-primary vote count with the 2012 Republican-primary vote count shows that roughly 1,173,066 more Ohioans voted in the Democratic primary four years ago than in the Republican primary this year. Think about that for a moment: Nearly 1.1 million more Ohioans voted for Democrats in 2008 than for Republicans in 2012. Presumably many of those Ohioans who voted for Obama in the 2008 primary voted for him in the general election, helping him win Ohio by a comfortable margin, and helped him win again in 2012, when he won about 300,000 fewer votes across the state, where turnout was down by more than 400,000 votes from what it was in 2008.

The second data point involves looking at the results from the Republican primaries in Ohio in 2008 and 2012. In 2012, Senator Santorum lost the primary but won 69 of Ohio’s 88 counties. The 69 counties he won are the most conservative in Ohio — the voters there are the Republican base. That Santorum won so many of them indicated that Romney had an issue with the base issue.

Dig a little deeper and the problem becomes far bigger. In 40 out of the 69 base counties that Santorum won, Romney received fewer votes than Mike Huckabee received in 2008 in a largely uncontested primary. (McCain had sown up the nomination by then.) That corroborates for me that the Republican base was not enthusiastic about Romney. Many people believed that Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate ameliorated some of that problem, but the results from last night don’t support that narrative.

Specifically, despite what we were told was the most sophisticated and successful ground game by a Republican in the history of the world, the turnout in Ohio declined 2.05 percent and in all but nine counties (although, to judge from the vote totals, the decline reflected on the Democratic GOTV effort even more than on the GOP side). In a year far better for the Republican presidential candidate than 2008, Romney received 93,200 fewer votes in Ohio than McCain did four years earlier. As it stands today, Obama won Ohio in 2012 by 107,241 votes, only 14,000 votes more than the margin by which Romney lost to McCain.

No matter how you look at it, it seems clear that the base in Ohio did not show up as it needed to do for Romney to win Ohio.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obama; ohio; romney
(1) - this is a good analysis, and probably should be extended to the other swing states where there was a contested GOP primary.

(2) The fact that Mayer apparently needs this analysis to conclude that "the Republican base was not enthusiastic about Romney" indicates that he is either mildly retarded, or has never actually met a member of the Republican base.

1 posted on 11/08/2012 12:52:00 PM PST by Eric Pode of Croydon
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To: LS

ping


2 posted on 11/08/2012 12:53:47 PM PST by Perdogg
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

Few Republicans vote in the presidential primaries here in Ohio. By the time it rolls around here, the decision has already been made. Voting is a mere formality.


3 posted on 11/08/2012 12:55:58 PM PST by griswold3 (Big Government does not tolerate rivals.)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

Even if the GOP base was not enthusiastic about Romney, they SHOULD have been enthusiastic about removing the commie kenyan. I’m beginning to wonder if all the big reports of Romney having 30,000 at rallies and Hussein having 2800 made some people a little over-confident and they didn’t bother to vote.


4 posted on 11/08/2012 12:56:15 PM PST by The Sons of Liberty (Never Underestimate the Power of Evil or Evil Doers)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

(3) Mayer didn’t get into the fact that military absentee ballot registration was down by 70%... and down by 92% in VA.

RINOism is only one of the major reasons Romney lost.


5 posted on 11/08/2012 1:00:12 PM PST by snowrip (Liberal? You are a socialist idiot with no rational argument.)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon
Whoever the top Real Conservative prospects for 2016 are, I'll personally write to them multiple times. My conditions for supporting or funding any of them:

1) Hire a real debate coach before even forming an exploratory committee;

2) Hire a video coordinator (assistant debate coach) who will run you through montages of all the critical Akin, Mourdock, "Romney 47%", Cain foreign policy, et al. blunders, frame by frame, once a day.

6 posted on 11/08/2012 1:00:56 PM PST by rfp1234
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To: snowrip

We can all thank Leon Panetta for that.


7 posted on 11/08/2012 1:02:10 PM PST by rfp1234
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

These analysts are not really interested in looking at fraud on a massive scale.

My eyes were opened to fraud in college when I watched The Machine stuff ballots for their candidate right before my very eyes. It was a young college republican club. The guy who won that election graduated soon thereafter and went to work for a Democrat in Birmingham. There was a professor who documented voter disenfranchisement in a neighboring county, and nothing has been done about it to this day. He video recorded it. I have a vague recollection it made the national news. But no one would touch it because it was a predominantly black county.


8 posted on 11/08/2012 1:07:41 PM PST by petitfour
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

What happened ? What do my lying eyes SEE ??? > FRAUD <


9 posted on 11/08/2012 1:09:29 PM PST by PraiseTheLord
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To: rfp1234

reference your (2) don’t forget “I am not a witch!” It amazes me that anyone with three functioning neurons thought she was a plausible Senator.


10 posted on 11/08/2012 1:10:40 PM PST by Eric Pode of Croydon
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To: griswold3
Few Republicans vote in the presidential primaries here in Ohio. By the time it rolls around here, the decision has already been made. Voting is a mere formality.

Bingo.

I'll also say I suspect the Senate Bill 5 fiasco turned off plenty of NE Ohio, union member, Reagan Democrats who may have otherwise voted for Romney.

11 posted on 11/08/2012 1:15:57 PM PST by gdani
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon
The best explanation I have seen is that BO's six month barrage of negative ads left swing state voters very jaded, and disgusted with both sides. Remember how Republicans were talking up their early vote turnout, and jeering that BO was wasting resources getting high propensity voters to the polls during early voting? Romney on the other hand was going to let the Republican high propensity voters get themselves to the polls on election day, and worked on low propensity voters during early voting.

Turns out that disgust at the months of ads, mailers and knocks on the door had moved many previously high propensity voters into the low propensity voter category. BO's folks understood the situation, heck, they created it. So they cajoled their turned off (formerly) high propensity voters to vote during early voting. Romney left his (formerly) high propensity voters to show up on their own on Tuesday, and far too few of them did.

12 posted on 11/08/2012 1:28:31 PM PST by Pilsner
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon
From White House Dossier:

It is estimated that more black people, not fewer, voted in 2012 than 2008. More Latinos voted, not fewer, and an even greater percentage of them supported Obama this time. The youth vote did not decline from 2008. All this despite flagging enthusiasm for the president. Here’s a telling anecdote related by a senior Obama aide to the press pool on Wednesday’s flight from Chicago back to Washington. During flight, a campaign official talked about the ground game on background . . . In describing the ground game, the official told of a conversation he had with a top field director on Monday. The GOP had tweeted that they had knocked on 75,000 doors in Ohio the day prior. Not to worry, the director said, “we knocked on 376,000.” Then the president came in, and this aide said, “Tell him the door thing.” So he did. And the president responded, “That’s my team.” That was not Romney’s team. Romney’s team was back in Boston Tuesday night, watching in awe:

13 posted on 11/08/2012 1:32:07 PM PST by eureka! (Bless Our Troops. D*mn the Left.)
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To: gdani

Let me tell you. In my area, the DNC played the hell out of the ad of the workers building a stage to hear about the Romney/Bain Capital closing a plant and moving those jobs to China.
(Which was funny -ha ha, because Carl Icahn just bought up troubled Navistar stocks. The company was contemplating layoffs. Those union workers had Obama signs in their yards.)


14 posted on 11/08/2012 1:33:50 PM PST by griswold3 (Big Government does not tolerate rivals.)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

I didn’t hear any news stories about the unmotivated Republican base. You figure the MSM would have loved to report on it, wonder why it was such a huge blind spot for them?


15 posted on 11/08/2012 1:41:37 PM PST by Brett66 (Where government advances, and it advances relentlessly , freedom is imperiled -Janice Rogers Brown)
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To: eureka!

OFA had a presence in Ohio since 2007. They didn’t go away after the 2008 election, they built up. That is where all that money went.


16 posted on 11/08/2012 1:43:03 PM PST by newnhdad (Our new motto: USA, it was fun while it lasted.)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

This is an awful analysis. Only 90% of the votes in Ohio are estimated to have been counted so far. Yet he compares the partial vote totals for 2012 to the final certified vote total in 2008.

Factoring that in, About 7% more people voted for Romney in 2012 than McCain in 2008 in Ohio.

I expect people like Limbaugh to screw this up, but I expect better from National Review.


17 posted on 11/08/2012 1:48:32 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: The Sons of Liberty

It would be interesting to compare county by county vote Romney vote totals against the Santorum vote totals in the same counties, i.e. did Santorum voters stay home?


18 posted on 11/08/2012 1:54:59 PM PST by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon
As soon as I could legally vote in 1970, I analyzed the situation and realized that although I was a Republican at heart and in philosophy, I had to register as a Democrat in order to have some voice in government in my State.

While I've never voted for a Democrat in an election that mattered, the primaries were important in those days. At least you could pick the weakest candidate to run against your real preference.

I changed my registration during Reagan's candidacy.

I became disenchanted with the Republican party with the nomination of Bob Dole; increasingly disenchanted with the nomination of John McCain (the only Presidential election I did not vote in since I was able to vote).

When the Republican establishment was pushing Romney, I initially said "no" and pledged my support to my friend Gary Johnson.

At the last minute, I voted for Romney to no avail.

The Republican Party has lost me.

In this last election, my candidates of choice won only at the County and City levels.

That's clearly where the future lies. I'm going to the County Clerk's office and registering as a Democrat tomorrow; simply so I can have a voice in my government.

I will not vote that way, but the stupid party has finally gotten my goat after 4 decades.

19 posted on 11/08/2012 2:06:49 PM PST by elkfersupper ( Member of the Original Defiant Class)
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To: The Sons of Liberty
I did not want Romney as our nominee at all! I decided to vote for him in an effort to remove Obama but promised myself that I'd join the Left to impeach him if he screwed America with more socialism and did not freeze and repeal Obamacare.

I can understand conservatives who decided not to get involved in a progressive buzzard fight. For me, it was not the right thing to do.

20 posted on 11/08/2012 2:30:26 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: The Sons of Liberty

That is a very good point.


21 posted on 11/08/2012 2:32:15 PM PST by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

I’m not a registered Republican, but I received zero, zip, nada phone calls or mail from the Democrats. Think of the time and money they saved. How do they know I won’t vote Democrat? Think about it. Do they have that kind of data and can crunch it? Maybe the first step is to make sure our information isn’t being sent to the Democrats.


22 posted on 11/08/2012 2:39:20 PM PST by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: SaraJohnson
I decided to vote for him in an effort to remove Obama but promised myself that I'd join the Left to impeach him if he screwed America with more socialism and did not freeze and repeal Obamacare.

Well, you don't have to be concerned about that now!

23 posted on 11/08/2012 2:40:45 PM PST by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

What happened to the enthusiasm though? It was showing in all the polls. Early voting was up for us, but we still didn’t make up the gap by voting in person.

Almost every election since zerO has been elected has went our way. Look at 2010 and Walker and even the Chick Fil A out pouring of support.

Yet they didn’t show up to remove the source? Wow.


24 posted on 11/08/2012 2:50:10 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: Eric Pode of Croydon

This is what happens when in 4 years you add 13 million to food stamps and a couple of million more to disabilty rolls. 15 million votes is alot of a headstart to overcome.The House must defund the welfare funding or no amount of tv ads and organizing will win.

We have millions who rather sit home and collect a little money than go out and make much more.

Take away their welfare check, and they MUST then vote Republican, because we are the ones who know and believe in the righteousness of creating jobs. Give them welfare and they MUST vote Democrat. ........AND IT HAPPENED. word!


25 posted on 11/08/2012 2:53:27 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: timestax

Sadly, no.

We would have stood a better chance with Romney but freedom was not guarenteed. It’s not guarenteed by the courts anymore. It’s not the law of the land anymore. :(


26 posted on 11/08/2012 3:02:19 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: SaraJohnson

27 posted on 11/09/2012 7:47:38 AM PST by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
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