I just read things indicating the Evangelical turnout was as high as ever, now it is being doubted again? Does anyone actually KNOW or is this based on “exit polls” again or what?
Maybe we all need to let this simmer for awhile until some real number crunching can go on. It seems the GOP/Conservative numbers crunchers are getting their AZ!Z kicked by Lib numbers crunchers....so let’s give it a while to figure things out.
Well, thus far the best source I've found that at least provides indicators as to how many Evangelicals voted is Pew Forum's exit polls: How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis
Per Pew Forum's exit polls, were white Evangelicals a greater part of the 2012 voting block vs. 2008 and 2004? Or less?
Answer? Well, I just crunched the rough #s based upon Pew Forum's exit polls...and more -- not less -- white Evangelicals voted in 2012...than either in 2008 or 2004.
It looks like almost 31 million white Evangelicals voted in 2012; compared to about 30 million in 2008, and compared to about 26 & 1/4 million in 2004.
How did white Evangelicals compare to other voter segments...in staying home or not?
Answer: They were 24% of the voting block in 2012; 23% in 2008; 21% in 2004.
Which religious voter groups turned out significantly less in 2012? (a) OTHER white Protestants -- not Evangelicals; (b) white Catholics
Per Pew Forum white Protestants dropped from 42% of the pie in 2008 to 39% in 2012...keep in mind, tho, that the mainline denominations are "aging" & unless a Dem "resurrects" a dead voter, they don't vote from the grave...
Still, 42% of about 132,654 (2008) vs. 39% of about 128 million is a drop-off of over 4 million voters!
Also, white Catholics dropped from 19% in 2008 to 18% in 2012...Because the voter pool was smaller in 2012, that's about 2 million LESS white Catholics turning out...(I estimate a drop from just over 25 million to just over 23 million)...obviously some of them died and weren't replaced by younger Catholic voters.
Note also that Pew Forum's exit polling showed that more white Evangelicals, %-wise, voted for Romney than even Mormons! Pew Forum says the breakdowns were 79-20% by white Evangelicals; and 78-21% by Lds!
CNN exit polls for votes by white Evangelicals were similar (78-21% Romney)
White Catholics voted Romney 59-40%...but because of Latino Catholics, the overall Catholic vote went to Obama (50-48%)