Some seem to think, after looking at the numbers, that the rural conservatives are the ones who did not show up. These are the voters that Bush appealed to, and Rove figured out how to turn out.
They did not turn out this time.
Now one can make a few guesses why that is...I suspect it isn’t one thing, it is several things.
—some may feel demoralized by the financial crisis, and the “brand” of the party took a big hit when Bush walked out for that bailout...on top of Katrina...on top of the wars. We can argue REALITY all day long, but perception is what it is. I think some of those voters just threw up their hands and decided it didn’t matter. Romney obviously did not turn out the voters.
—I do think the “mormon thing” is something few want to talk about, but is real. Rural Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia...this could have been a big deal. It might not be a huge TOTAL number, but it would hit this part of the population. It can’t be blamed totally, but it is a factor.
—I myself discounted how big the financial meltdown was I think. I assumed anti Obamaism would overrule that, but if you compare the emotion of it to 9/11...and Bush beating Kerry in 2004 and now Obama winning...not a perfect comparison, but maybe it just takes a good 8 years for the “reset” button to be hit on politics. Only FOUR percent voted caring about foreign policy. FOUR.
Obama managed to get the “don’t cares” to care enough to vote. I think maybe the GOP now has its own “don’t care” problem. They “care” but they don’t think voting for President matters anymore. Someone has to come along to change that dynamic. People can argue who it is, but it is not easily definable.
I know one thing, NONE of the people that actually ran on the GOP side had “it” this time.
I suspect the Dems are going to have a hard time finding it in 2016. Biden, Hillary and Cory Booker CERTAINLY don’t have it. Whatever we say about Obama, he clearly had enough to win.
It is funny, now I know how the Bush haters felt in 2004...and by 2006 everything had flipped.
So....who knows.
Among evangelicals at least, Ralph Reed is disputing that claim this morning. He states that evangelicals turned out in great numbers and supported Romney as much as they did Bush. Reed's numbers show bigger turnout and a 78-21 edge for Romney among evangelical Christians. An FR thread about this issue can be read HERE.