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The problem with the "vote fraud" theory is that that convincing evidence that it's not correct; for example the actual results were very close to the aggregate polling predictions in the last weeks before the election, see for example:

And what about Florida, where the averages were off by two points? And Ohio, where we know there was massive voter fraud. It doesn't need to be a massive nation-wide conspiracy, just a focused campaign of cheating in targeted swing states.

And what about Florida, where the averages were off by two points?

Uh... the aggregated polling was almost spot on in FL:

Predicted: 49.8 / 49.8

Actual: 49.9 / 49.3

Projected: Scroll down to the filter for individual state projections on the right hand side.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Actual: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/

And Ohio, where we know there was massive voter fraud.

Predicted: 51.3 / 47.7

Actual: 50.1 / 48.2

Obama slightly under-performed relative to polling - the opposite of what would be expected as a result of significant voter fraud.

Does not man that there was no fraud, but IMO it's a pretty convincing demonstration that it was not a significant factor.