Your theories are not reflected in the exit polling. Obama effectively scared voters by tying Romney to Bush whom voters still blame for our economic problems. He won Ohio by demonizing and mischaracterizing the op-ed Romney wrote four years ago about the auto bailouts.
Why do so many here ignore the 'historical nature' of the Obama presidency? That was always the wild card insulating Obama, granting him a benefit of the doubt no other modern president would get.
Regarding #4, I would call Romney’s failure to bring up Libya in the third debate as passive. What would you call it? Can you imagine a democrat passing an opportunity to go after a republican president on this?