I think this is good analysis. Obama did poorly last night. Romney did even more poorly. This is no big left wing victory, although they will portray it as such. In 2016 they will be running a new non-incumbent candidate who is a mere mortal that they are not as emotionally invested in, and it will be unlikely to be a better scenario for Democrats than it was this year.
Three problems with your forecast:
1. By 2016, Obamacare will be in full flower. As such, it will no longer be a candidate for repeal, but part of the political landscape.
2. The Democrat Senate and the demoralized GOP House will likely pass some form of amnesty in 2013. Thus, by 2016, the electorate will be awash in millions of freshly-minted Democrat voters.
3. We are also likely to have institutionalized a Cap & Trade Scheme plus all the accompanying EPA regulations. The economy will never be the same again.
It will be a Brave New World by 2016 -- one that is going to be hostile to most conservative ideas.
The demographics are bad and getting worse.
The electorate has become tribal — voting as a bloc on race, gender, sexual orientation — and therefore less fluid and less able to be persuaded.
Romney won the white vote in a landslide. There just aren’t enough of them anymore. That’s the blunt takeaway of this election.
About the only pathway to victory I see at this point is for the Left to fragment. A dismal economy might force their various thieving constituencies to fight over the diminishing pie, thus fragmenting their coalition. Its hard for me to see conservatives winning the presidency any other way.