Sorry, but no. The state level polling in the final week was actually favouring Romney in the swing states. Most of the professional polling houses had Romney statistically tied or slightly ahead in iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, etc.
Frankly, I’m still not sure where people are getting this idea that “the state level polling” had Obama ahead. It did not. MSM state level polling had it ahead - using a partisan turnout model that was grossly unrealistic, and in fact, is STILL grossly unrealistic when you consider the actual results. A D+7 - D +11 turnout would have safely handed the House back to the Dems, as well as giving Obama a lot more than a 2% PV win, while losing a couple of states that he won last time.
No - the math is NOT working out. Or else, I guess we just accept that polling houses like Gallup and Rasmussen, with decades long track records of good accuracy, suddenly have stopped being able to do basic statistics.
I believe a good number of voters broke from Romney to Obama in the last two weeks.....One reason was because the media starting painting a rosy picture of the economy, and then Fatso sealed the deal.
The idea that the state level polling favored Romney is pure fiction. This is verifiable. Just go to RCP and see for yourself. The only pollster who saw a tossup in the swing states was Ras....and that is the whole point of the article. He was the outlier and he was dead wrong...in large part because he fiddled with Party ID while other pollsters just went on how their participants self identified for party ID. The fact is that the polls in aggregate were right, moreso than any individual posllster and certainly moreso than outliers like Gallup and Ras. Pretending otherwise is merely continuing the pattern of denialism that resulted in Romney himself and almost everyone here being shocked at a highly predictable outcome.
By the way, you could go back and “unskew” those state polls...Ras included...to D+6 and they would all show Obama winning, so I am still not sure what your beef is with them. Why slam the pollsters and aggregators like Nate Silver—who nailed everything including popular vote just by aggregating state and national polls—when we should have knives out for the guys who blew it? Zogby was dead to the leftists after 2004...Rasmussen deserves the same.