Posted on 11/07/2012 12:42:40 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
Mitt Romney's loss on Tuesday laid bare a Republican demographic problem that, if not addressed, could transform the GOP into a permanent minority party.
Romney dominated among white voters, who made up 72 percent of the electorate: He won that group by 20 percentage points, according to the national exit poll. But he was crushed among Latinos, who broke for President Obama 71 percent to 27 percent.
The former group is shrinking as a portion of the electorate. In 1988, they were 85 percent of all voters. By the year 2000, that was down to 81 percent. It's fallen nine more points since them. The Latino population, meanwhile, is growing at a staggering pace: Latinos accounted for more than half of the U.S. population increase between 2000 and 2010, according to the 2010 census. The black and Asian vote, which also broke overwhelmingly for the president, is also growing. Blacks were 13 percent of the electorate this year, up from 10 percent in 1988; Asians have risen from one percent of the electorate to three percent over the past two decades.
It's a demographic reality that already has some Republicans calling for a new course in the wake of Romney's defeat.
"The conservative movement should have particular appeal to people in minority and immigrant communities who are trying to make it, and Republicans need to work harder than ever to communicate our beliefs to them," said Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
On "CBS This Morning" today, newly-elected Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz argued that "the values in the Hispanic community are fundamentally conservative, but you've got to have candidates that connect with that community in a real and genuine way and communicate that the values between the candidate and the community are one and the same."
Romney's weakness among Latinos cost him dearly in the battleground states of Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and Florida; if future Republican candidates don't perform better among that group, red states like Arizona and even Texas are on a path to become battlegrounds themselves.
"Immigration has caused the Republican Party to leave votes on the table," Gary Segura of Latino Decisions said Wednesday. Pointing to the president's margin of victory, he argued that "For the first time in American history, the Latino vote can plausibly claim to be nationally decisive."
The GOP's demographic problems don't just break down along racial lines. Voters under 30 supported the president 60 percent to 37 percent, and voters between 30 and 44 years old backed Mr. Obama by seven percentage points. Some of these voters may become more conservative as they grow older. But rapidly shifting views suggest they almost certainly will not embrace the GOP's opposition to same-sex marriage. And young women, who overwhelmingly backed the president, will most likely continue to oppose Republicans when it comes to access to contraceptive health care coverage and abortion rights. Al Cardenas, the head of the American Conservative Union, bluntly told Politico that his party "needs to realize that it's too old and too white and too male and it needs to figure out how to catch up with the demographics of the country before it's too late."
The question now facing Republicans is whether they shift toward the middle or instead try to appeal to growing demographic groups while staying planted firmly on the right side of the political spectrum. There are those who will look at the past two presidential cycles, in which relatively moderate Republican nominees fell short, and conclude that the party needs to nominate a true believer willing to stand behind core conservative principles. Rubio, who is already being discussed as a leading 2016 presidential contender, is the kind of candidate that could energize those who want to reach out to new types of voters without abandoning the party's beliefs.
John Hudak of the Brookings Institution argues that the best past forward for the GOP is to move - slowly - toward positions that hold appeal for groups that voted for Mr. Obama this year.
"If they move too quickly to the middle, it's going to alienate a lot of people in their party," he said. Fifty-nine percent of voters in the exit poll said abortion should be legal, but if Republicans suddenly embrace abortion rights, evangelicals and values voters could abandon the GOP. If they shift leftward too quickly on fiscal issues, it could prompt Tea Partiers and libertarians to do the same.
Hudak said the GOP's handling of same-sex marriage provides a template. In the 2004 election, Republicans used opposition to same-sex marriage to drive voters to the polls. But as attitudes shifted, Republicans for the most part simply stopped talking about the issue.
"That's the first step to neutralizing these social issues," he said. "It's not to change your mind. It's just to not speak your mind. And that way people can think this isn't that aggressive party anymore, and it opens the door for them to vote for you based on other issues."
"It's definitely a challenge," Hudak added, "but I don't think it's insurmountable."
Of course, what the GOP-E will do is keep jamming the pointy stick into their eye, hoping that it will hurt less if they keep doing it.
Soul searching? Conservatives will once again ask why the GOP-E thinks RINO squishes are viable nominees, and the GOP-E will continue to insist that RINO squishes are viable nominees.
Just saying, I loved Paul Ryan, but I was hoping Susana Martinez was going to be put on the ticket.
She would have sealed FL, NM, CO, and NV.
Look no further than the political pawn shop...
BS. The country has gone socialist. Its time to go John Gault, not time to chase the sheep.
There will be a train wreck, the sooner the better.
I am so sick and tired of hearing from libs telling US what to do about OUR party..we have to adore abortion, we have to let illegal aliens become citizens..you want to abort your baby, vote for the Dem party..I am NOT going to kiss the Dem party’s ass just to gain a few votes. Meanwhile you have the Dem party BOOING God and Israel and no one tells the Dems that they have to get rid of their “Extremists” yet its the Republicans who have to kiss the asses of the “Moderates” screw that..I am sticking to my Conservative beliefs!
Oh goodie. The old conservative CBS is going to explain it all to us. Take a hike, grifters. Go make a series about a news outfit that won’t cover the news. Any publicly held company that advertises on a media outlet that refuses to tell the truth about Benghazi, has management that is guilty of failing to take proper care of the shareholder’s hard earned money.
Perhaps, there needs to be a better method of vetting viable candidates rather than let it be a free-for-all like we were just subjected to.
Next, get a plan with stringent ideas and stick to them. Don't be all over the board.
Get rid of the elite, country club republicans who would rather lose than win. And, develop a nation wide machine in each state that motivates to base and other parts of electorate. That is what the dems. did.
Soul searching ie move to the left is what CBS means.
America has tipped.
It will never come back.
The experiment is over.
The NEA has successfully created a culture in which we now have 51% takers as opposed to workers.
We can now run as right a candidate as we desire or run dem lites- it will not matter.
The meaner guy won the election. The guy who chose not to talk about Benghazi when the entire country was watching LOST. Maybe next time we nominate someone who is willing to fight for the job.
The House should let it be sooner by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. They should allow sequestration, open the borders, and let Obama raise taxes. Buy ammo, popcorn, and watch the country blow up in flames. The fit will be here to lead in the aftermath.
&^$% you CBS. I refuse to consume the crap you are offering.
So, who’s next on the GOP-E’s Russian roulette carousel?
I think Martinez was smart enough to realize she would have gotten Palin-ized - she said up front thanks, but no thanks.
Concur. Women who dress up in vaginas want “free” birth control paid for by me so they can spread their legs whenever they are in heat and have an abortion if necessary. Anyone who dare speaks against this, or suggest modesty or self restraint is anti-woman and will never get their vote.
KEEP YOUR STINKIN’ VOTE.
These are the people I am supposed to “go after”?
Another smoke blower.
The bottom line is liberals create and maintain constituents via social programs and the perpetuation of victimization.
Conservative alienate constituents via responsibility and expectations.
I agree - tired of apologizing for my beliefs and having to compromise. If they thought this election was polarized...
Frankly, I no longer think its about all about race. It's about Takers vs. Makers. Race is more like jerseys - it identifies the team you "should" be on. All getting a minority on the Maker side does is invoke an allergic response from the Taker side, since they shouldn't be there and must be put in their place.
No she would not have been for the following reasons
1. She is attractive, but she is not as pretty as Palin.
2. She is a lawyer, daughter of Immigrants.
3. She is Hispanic.
I don’t believe Romney lost because he is a RINO. To me it’s demographics with more and more free loaders that won it for Obama and the Dems and this trend will continue for the distant future. That being said there is no excuse anymore for not running real conservatives. We have yet to try that approach.
Foreign policy was the top issue with only 2% of the public. Dwelling on it would have sounded like a clanging cymbal to the rank and file and, in addition, would have given Obama another chance to beat his chest about killing OBL.
In addition, Romney did not want to risk the chance that the media would turn the Benghazi thing into a Petraeus vs. Romney thing (Petraeus was reciting the video line).
Romney was no slacker...he fought very hard for the Presidency. I think most people recognize this although you apparently don't.
The reality is that the GOP must lead on an illegal immigration solution and not follow.
As long as there is no movement, Latinos will always think the Dems provide a better chance for a deal.
Until the illegal immigration issue goes away, there are many more yesterdays in our future.
Romney surprised me in the 1st debate when he came out punching. Impressive.
To beat the dirty democrats, we need a street fighter, someone who is not afraid to go to the mats or roll in a ditch.Sarah is her name.
She would have NEVER called Obama a ‘nice guy’ and would have HAMMERED him on the economy and especially the whole Lybia affair.
STOP TRYING TO BE ‘NICE’ to the democrats and punch them in the gonads.
Who’s the next moderate establishment Republican in line for “their turn” come 2016?
Amen, sister. Amen.
so despite all that support from Latino’s, obamugabe squeaked out an election win, receiving 10% less votes than he did last time against a candidate who received 5% less votes than the GOP candidate from 2008...in an election that brought in less cumulative votes than 2004...
does the GOP need to do a better job outreaching to latinos/hispanics/blacks?? absolutely...do they need to panic and offer giveaways based on the numbers from yesterday?? no freakin way...
also- if you thought the nation was polarized during obamamugabe’s first four years wait until we see what the next four bring, based on the numbers....
None of that matters. The fact of the matter is the majority of Americans honestly want to give socialism a shot, spearheaded by college students and minorities. Things will have to get a lot worse before they turn around.
Sorry to disagree. Her best bet for a political future is to switch to “D”. Same goes for Rubio. Both great people, but unless they put on a Santa Claus beard, the D’s won’t vote for any “R”...race be damned.
Soul searching? I just saw a note that undecideds broke 15% for Obama after he looked so caring after Sandy. Let the voters get the spanking they voted for its been a long time coming.
Nothing that yet another move to the left won't cure, eh, Hudak?
Count me out. Romney was a bridge too far for me and if the Republican Party thinks the way to recover from McCain and Romney is to move even farther to the left, I'm sure I won't be the only one leaving.
The left and MSM doesn’t care. Palin was a reformer. All that got buried because she was a threat.
Mitt Romney had a socially liberal record and ended up having to beg for the support of social conservatives. Even, though, he eventually won many over, he still lost hundreds of thousands of social conservatives. That is the primary reason he had less votes than John McCain.
Karl Rove is no social conservative. But, he worked with Ralph Reed to build a ground game among churches and pastors that pulled out the 2004 election for Bush. Mike Huckabee won Iowa with little financial resources in 2008 by putting together a similar ground. The next Presidential candidate will have to do the same thing.
If the GOP establishment gets the wrong message and abandons social issues, though, the Republican party will be doomed to regional status and have to be content at winning in Congress and at the state level.
Agreed. A good start is to let sequestration happen, let the tax rates go up, and let the debt ceiling expire.
Romney drew first blood so no excuses. Time to get it that America land of the brave and home of the free in now Land of the depraved and home of the freebie.
There is no justification for the stupid party to exist anymore the country need a real opposition party and the republicans have proved over and over they are not it....
Time to sit back and watch the Cloward–Piven strategy work its magic.
Yep. When I brought up the issue here a couple of weeks ago, saying that Romney ought to fight by exposing the RAT party's methods AND Benghazi, the response from a prominent poster was "Winners don't do that!", to which I replied, "And winners lose." Our "Winner" lost. Could he have lost any worse, and would it have mattered, if he had tried to go above media's heads and educate the voters a little, and expose the shenanigans a little?! Nice guys finish last, the voters remain as uninformed, as misinformed as before the start of this circus show last spring. Nothing was gained and everything was lost.
The GOP doesn’t have a soul.
They are vacuous dirt bags...
That social conservatism was absent from the Romney campaign and that Romney had a liberal record on social issues is the reason why he couldn't win Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and Ohio.
The establishment better wake up and start figuring out that it needs a social conservatives to have any chance of winning the key battleground states.
“This gave Obama lots of ammunition and opportunity to use against him.”
No Democrat candidate ever needs ammunition when they always have the MSM Force Field Shield!
They are impervious to facts & truth. All they need to do is to pass out freebies to the mobs, relax and let the MSM & unions do their fighting for them. When the GOP-e declines to fight, why that’s just whipped cream and a cherry on top of their fruitcake.
So all the GOP needs is a transvestite homosexual black abortion Dr with a spanish surname for a candidate...
They just tell the customer, us, what they believe and what we should believe.
The secret to good salesmanship is getting the customer on your side by interacting with you.
AMEN!
Let them remain in their natural habitat, the democrat party - the party that boos God and caters to vice and stupidity.
They just tell the customer, us, what they believe and what we should believe.
The secret to good salesmanship is getting the customer on your side by interacting with you.
I do not believe the exit polls....any of them.
I firmly believe we have just been the victims of the biggest fraud in the history of mankind.
I refuse to believe that the American people were energized to vote for President Obama yesterday.
This election could be a script from a movie, therefore, I am starting to believe it was designed as such.
I think it is far more likely that a plan has been in the works to corrupt this cycle since 2010.
Multiple blue states voted for every Democrat in statewide races by a similar count as what President Obama gained in that state.
States that typically split their statewide vote went 100% Democrat for every statewide race. That can only come from straight party-line voting.
If you wanted to demoralize your opponents, and had the ability, you would arrange the votes in a few safe districts within a few states to overwhelm the other party’s safe districts, regardless of turnout.
Then, you would ensure the exit polling contradicted everything your opponents believe, everything they expect and everything they support.
At that point, your opponents would turn on each other, re-think their beliefs and dissolve into irrelevance.
Who would have thought that four years ago, the United States would elect a man who served only 40 months in the US Senate to the White House? Who would have thought his background, his history and his performance would be protected, minimized or dismissed over the course his first term?
If an evil alliance of socialists and islamists really exist in our world, could they have engineered such events?
Oh goody! Another group to whom to promise freebies paid for by confiscating white money!
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