the pool of Republican voters was pretty large in 2010....
Yes, but where are we now? What is the total number of registered republicans in 2012 What is the percentage of them that voted in 2012? Likewise, what is the total number of registered dems and what percentage voted in 2012. If we met or exceeded them on a percentage basis, then we have too small of a current pool. We would need to bring more into our tent. If our percentage is lower than the dems, but the totals are relatively the same, then we just need to improve GOTV efforts.
Yeah, but millions of low-information voters don't pay much attention to mid-terms.
But when the Messiah is running, telling them "those folks gonna take your free shit away", it is an entirely different game.