First time for everything I suppose but this doesn't give me heart .....
they were wrong on obamacare.
“Intrade has never been wrong ... yet.”
According to a poster at Investor Politics, Intrade
“also gave a better than 80% chance that the Supreme court would overturn Obamacare the day before the verdict.”
http://investorplace.com/investorpolitics/intrades-presidential-prediction-machine-politics-obama-romney-2012/
So you can’t say they’ve never been wrong, but they do have a pretty good track record in presidential elections.