I noticed that Missouri seems to have been ignored as a bellwether after it went for McCain in 2008.
I know, MO polls have Romney up by double digits! MO is one of the great bellweathers though it has been trending Repub. I’ve never seen a candidate with a lead like R has there lose. Hell Reagan only took it by 9% in 1980!!
I think traditional “bellwethers” have become meaningless due to the rapid demographic change happening in the US; not the one portrayed on the news (which is designed to prevent Americans from panicking), but the very real one happening in front of our eyes in maternity wards, schoolyards, and immigration offices. America is rapidly becoming much more Asian and Hispanic, and there is simply now way to use past models to project the behavior of those populations.
Missouri barely went McCain in 2008, but less than 1%. MO has been moving Right in recent years, however, and is probably about 3-4% off-centre to the right side of the aisle. Still, with Romney posting double digit leads there, I think this still indicates an election going to go our way.