[EagleClaw]

I voted early this morning in rural Virginia. The turnout looked about the same as ‘08 in this very conservative district. I was struck by two conversations with neighbors while waiting in line. I know both voted Obama in ‘08. One is switching their vote to Romney, the other not voting for either one. I also know my 86-year old mother, who is the definition of an independent, voted Obama in ‘08 but is voting Romney this time, but she would only whisper that to me and not say it out loud. I think there are many, many voters in Virginia who are very quietly switching their votes.

And former governor Doug Wilder declined to endorse Obama, because Obama did not kiss his ring. Wilder still has significant sway with black voters in this state, and his lack of support for Obama may make some difference.

I feel pretty good that Virginia will go for Romney.

[ilgipper]

I know those stories are anecdotal (the switching from Obama to Romney), but they seem to be very common. I fail to see how this race is going to go against us with so many people changing their minds. There will be almost literally no one who voted McCain in 2008 who stay home or go Obama, so it is a one way migration. Add that to high motivation on our side, and I feel like this should be a lock. As many have said the past couple days, everything feels like a decisive Romney win except the polls.

[SoftwareEngineer]

FINAL DAILY COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER (w/RAS INTERNALS)

The final numbers are in. R:49 O:48. This still includes the good SAT numbers for the President. They did not fall off yet

Let us break down the numbers:

• True number should have been R:50 O:48 but ONCE AGAIN the "Lean Romney" number is rounded down to zero
• Only 87% of Republicans are shown voting for the Governor. UNBELIEVABLE
• Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans will vote for the President. UNBELIEVABLE
• Right Track/Wrong Track Nationally is 44/53. Seems too high
• RT/WT for Asians and Hispanics is 47/50. Seems too high
• Governor leads Independents by 14
• The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE
• Approval Index is -22% for Independents. GOOD!
  
  Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24
  
  Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (87*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 49.35
  Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (12*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 47.88
  
  Now, as I have said in my previous commentaries, I find the Republican voter number for the Governor (87%) unbelievable. Every other survey (including liberal ones) find the number to be near 95%. So, let us run the SAME numbers (above) with just one change i.e. assume that 95% of Republicans vote for the Governor
  
  Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (95*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 52.31
  Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (05*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 45.29
  
  So final tally: R:52 O:45
  If you throw 1% to "Other" and split the other 2% between the two then your final tally becomes:
  
  R:53 O:46
  
  FINAL THOUGHTS: In less than 12 hours it will become clear how right or wrong I was. Unlike Nate Silver, I do not claim powers of soothsaying or divinity. I am just an Engineer and my data is only as good as the input (Rasmussen's numbers) and my analysis (the best I can do)
  
  I truly appreciate the help everyone has given and I raise my toast in anticipation of a great victory by the Governor
  
  NOTE: Many numbers used here are internal and not available on the link above