[bigred44]

This differential must be just from polling by Rasmussen, not actual votes recorded by the State. That number doesn’t seem right.

Obama’s advantage in early voting in 2008 was less than 20% over McCain. And the final tally was only 4.6% margin for Obama in 2008.

As of Friday, the early votes were about 28% of the 2008 totals, and the early voting advantage is less than 10% Obama. We know that the early vote advantage has been cut dramatically in 2012 from 2008. And the projected margin for Romney on those yet to vote is 13%, which will make his margin more than enough.

[johncocktoasten]

Rasmussen’s state polling is not as sharp as his fix on National Numbers and the Voter Electorate.

[LS]

If D's lead in earlies from the 28% is "less than 10%," I'd like to know where you got that. But if true, it means that the magic number is 156,000. Doable, but tough.

However, if the magic number is closer to 5%, then it's over for Obama.

Bush won this state by 118,000, so at the 156,000 number we'll have to have a combo of increased 38,000 in additional Rs and/or I advantage and/or D-R flips.