Because this is not Rasmussen’s party affiliation base that he starts with. This is his recent polling that he adjusts his base party affiliation with.
I think his base is either Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on which freeper you’re talking to.
He then uses a formula internal to his own organization to adjust that base, and presumably, this party affiliation polling is part of what gets factored in.
Additionally, on today’s Rasmussen 49/48 thread posted by Software Engineer, he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.
So, if you take 88% of 39% you get 34% of these republicans actually voting for Romney. On Romney’s side, however, is that independents favor him over Obama.
I’m an Ohioan, and my gut says Romney’s doing much better than John Glen did. I see Romney winning Ohio by a safe margin, assuming no vote fraud. I also see him winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa.
My gut says Romney wins barring vote fraud.
That's discouraging, but iirc it was noticeably higher v. McLame. We also have X amount of "don't-call-me-racist" response.
None of this late swing to R's has any relevance upon this 12%. I's, nor D's would change party affiliation to Republican to vote for Obie.
I wouldn't buy that with your money. There is just NO way that Obama is going to get 12% of the Republican vote. Either Scott didn't really make that claim, or he's completely off his rocker.
Even if there is a Romney landslide there are lawyers already in place to question and fight every result if it doesn’t favor Obama.
The Dems have convinced their followers that the Republicans are engineering massive voter fraud. They feel the last election was stolen in Florida and they plan to tie up the election in the courts any way they can.
“I think his base is either Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on which freeper you’re talking to”
Rasmussen released his “D +” numbers for June 2012, which ranged from D+3 to D+14 over the 30 days, with zero days on which the sample was “R +”. Rasmussen stated on TV on Fox that he DOES NOT weight the samples — instead, that number is the way the party affiliation shook out after looking at the 1,200 responses(total number varied, but usually over a thousand). Why were there no days with R+ numbers? I personally believe that Republicans are not answering the phone—almost all of us have Caller-ID. Plus, we’re at work and the ‘Rats are not!!!
“... he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.
So, if you take 88% of 39% you get 34% of these republicans actually voting for Romney. On Romney’s side, however, is that independents favor him over Obama.”
Don’t overlook the fact that there are still some conservative-leaning Democrats who will vote against the fiscal irresponsibility of Obama (or not vote at all).
“... he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.
So, if you take 88% of 39% you get 34% of these republicans actually voting for Romney. On Romney’s side, however, is that independents favor him over Obama.”
Don’t overlook the fact that there are still some conservative-leaning Democrats who will vote against the fiscal irresponsibility of Obama (or not vote at all).
I’m 1000% Romney BUT to try to explain the R+5.8% with 12% not voting for Romney yielding only a 1% lead.....I recall, particularly in some Red states Democrats switching Party affiliation in 2010 such that they could vote for bad Tea Party candidates to enable their Dem candidate in the general election.
Also, some Democrats register Republican in Red states so they can vote in primaries that matter.
Don’t know if thats the case but just saying.........how else to you explain 12% Republicans voting for Obama?