Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.
posted on 11/05/2012 9:43:24 AM PST
No pollster does that because that isnt what pollsters do.
Silver isn't a pollster, he is an oddsmaker. Basically a political bookie. But i think you are right, he sees the numbers but not the influences of them. A bit of not being able to see the forest through all the trees...
posted on 11/05/2012 9:49:54 AM PST
(it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isnt what pollsters do.
I agree. It's such a cop-out on his part.
When Romney wins, critics can't enumerate exactly how much Silver was wrong by. They can't say "he missed the mark by 14 percentage points or 110 electoral votes."
With his lame method of prediction, he'll just say, "Well, I did say there was a 14% chance Romney would win, so I wasn't wrong."
He's a gutless little ferret.
posted on 11/05/2012 10:13:39 AM PST
(It ain't over until the phone lady sings.)
posted on 11/05/2012 11:29:02 AM PST
(DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson