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COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER

Good poll for the Governor, but could have been better, if not for averaging the last three days. As predicted, THU, a good President day, fell off. But SAT was still a good President polling day, so that mumberis still in. Romney’s "Leaning" number is being rounded down to zero, otherwise he would have been at 50

Presidential approval is down to 50 now
Approval index is still at -8% but -26% with Independents
The Governor now leads by 15 with independents (yay!!) but is behind 10 with women. This proves my point that the +4 lead the Gov had with independents was a huge anomaly
Right Track/Wrong Track: 44/53 (still suspect)
RT/WT for Asians/Hispanics: 46/50 (still suspect)

The most unbelievable data point: Gov Romney is only supported by 86% of Republicans and Pres Obama is supported by 89% of Democrats. What’s more, 12% of Republicans are voting for the President. As a counterpoint, yesterday’s ABCWASHPO poll has 97% of Republicans voting for the Governor

Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27

Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change

Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68

In other words: R:52 O:46

BOTTOM LINE: The Governor is surging at the right time. Independent numbers are fantastic. VOTE EARLY and VOTE OFTEN tomorrow ;-)

NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will NOT be available at the link above

Despite RAS saying that he thinks the final turnout will be D/R/I of 39/37/24 (and I disagree) it turns out that for the full week ending SUN 11/04 he was using a D+4 sample!

No wonder his Republicans for Romney number was low

For those of you that have subscriptions:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/full_week_crosstabs/crosstabs_full_week_crosstabs_october_29_november_4_2012

Also, it is clear that for the full week, the Governor loses one point due to rounding. The “Leaning Romney” number is shown a 0, which is why the poll is R:49 O:48

However 1% of whites (74% of sample) lean Romney. But that got rounded down

BOTTOM LINE: Scott Rasmussen believes that in the general populace Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6% (as per his October release)

However, he believes that on Election Day, we will get a D+2 sample

ON TOP OF THAT, he polls with a D+4 sample!!