I posted this just as a prelude to what the dark side (dailykos) feels about CO, turnout models, ppp polling, etc. All very fascinating.
Basically long and short is we were 2% behind in 2008 and now 2.3% ahead this year. Of course indies switched and I believe republicans will be more faithful this year compared to 08.
Let’s see what they say:
“but this has me concerned. This is a state PPP recently had us up by 4 in, and Nate has us with a 68% chance of winning...and yet it does not look good from the actual votes cast. This makes me worry about other states where PPP has us up by 4. Do the Obama oarganizers on the ground in CO have any analysis or rationale for why the Ds never made that late surge we were expecting? Anyone there with any soothing info for us?”
by MarkPA on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:18:15 PM PDT
Next drone:
“that the OFA ground game is not quite as strong as is often touted, or perhaps the Rs ground game is underrated. It is hard squaring most polls in CO showing us a few pts. ahead with these numbers.”
Bad Language ahead:
by ncps on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:24:40 PM PDT
* [new] exactly...nightmare scenario is panning out...(0+ / 0-)
their silent majority turns out in droves and the OFA ground game is not what it seems.
And Florida goes and Colorado goes and Virginia and we’re all waiting around for a few precincts in Ohio to decide the whole goddamn thing.
Because the passion and enthusiasm on our side simply isn’t what it needed to be and no amount of “ground game” bravado can make it be.
And these #’s and those in Florida are evidence.
Suddenly looking at polls and saying “Who gives a fuck? We’re LOSING in real votes in Colorado and have to win FLorida on Election Day after LOSING it to McCain by 5% in 08! Not going to happen, folks. Wake the fuck up”
More dronespeak:
* [new] It’s not just Colorado either...Florida is (2+ / 0-)
so far behind 2008 #s and it will all come down to winning the state on election day— something Obama did not do in 2008 — losing it by 5% against a horribly organized McCain campaign.
Colorado already looks lost. Period.
Ohio and Virginia. That’s where this will be decided.
There simply is no REAL early voting edge to speak of for Obama in Colorado or Florida. None. And barely anything in Ohio.
It will indeed be a very long night. Back to thinking this is going to be ridiculously close.
closet freeper?:
* [new] Flaw with your analysis?(0+ / 0-)
Here is where I think you may be making a mistake.
You’re basing voting patterns on the 2006, 2008 & 2010 elections. 2006 & 2008 were Democratic wave elections so you’d expect more Indies and defecting Repubs. 2010 was a wave election the other way.
The Republicans seem to be fired up this year whether because they prefer Romney to McCain or just can’t wait to vote against BO who knows? Democratic enthusiasm is down from 2008, and most general polls (no idea about Colorado polls) show Romney leading with Independents by a good margin.
So by using 2 pro-Dem elections and only 1 pro-Repub election aren’t you probably underestimating Republican support - certainly among Indies & Repubs?
by Catalyst65 on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:36:48 PM PDT
Isn’t this the dude that stalked Palin?:
* [new] Have been calling Colorado (and Ohio/Virginia) (0+ / 0-)
from home and will continue to.
“Any one of those three (with various degrees of help) should mean Obama wins.
So yeah, am calling AND raising questions and calling people’s attention to REAL #’s so people are aware THIS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER than most here seem to think it will be.
It very well could swing the other way (Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Virginia for Romney by a point each).
Trouble brewing unless enough folks have swung or will swing to Obama since Sandy etc....so that Obama does better on Election Day itself than expected.
The Delivery Man by Joe McGinniss Jr. [Grove/Atlantic January, 2008]
by joemcginnissjr on Sat Nov 03, 2012 at 07:59:55 PM PDT
Wow, simply fascinating.
Maybe these are the smart ones who see the writing on the wall.
Dear All,
First of all, read this interesting post by Ravi:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955029/posts#2
Like a piece in a jigsaw picture, it provides a small level of detail that is crucial in understanding what the final picture will look like
Ravi is now using “liberal” analysis and data points to show why even the Democrats fear that CO is lost.
One of the accusations that we get on FR is that we are all wearing rose colored glasses and are overly optimistic. Well, read this post by Ravi that shows you what the Democrats are discussing. This shows that they TOO are analyzing the data the way we are
Ravi: GREAT JOB!!!
BOTTOM LINE: CO, NC, VA, FL are NOT IN PLAY
Let us talk about OH, PA, MI, WI, MN, NH, OR, NM, NV
Onward fellow Americans! (not to be confused with “Forward!” ;-) ;-) )