Bush got almost 19.5% of Philly in 04. I think Romney will crack 20% or maybe a little more of the Philly vote. Problem is Dems keep growing their registration pie in Philly. Will there be a lesser turnout of that bigger pie? Maybe 560,000 for Obama to 150,000 for Romney. That is nearly the deficit (412,000 versus 410,000) Bush had coming out of Philly in 04 and Bush lost by 2.5% Can Romney make up that 410K deficit with higher turnout and more independents voting for him?
Barone seems to think that Romney can mine enough votes in Bucks and other suburbs of Philly to get over the Philly hump. Guy knows what he’s talking about and the rally may be an indication that Romney is going to perform well in those burbs.