The poll numbers are based on a 2008 turnout model wherein Democrat turnout was 7% higher than Republican turnout. Based on early voting numbers (Democrat early voting is down across the board), the Republican enthusiasm gap showing them much more likely to vote and anecdotal evidence (the campaign is being fought on Obama’s turf etc.) I don’t believe their D+6/7 model. Do you based on what you see? Do you see enthusiasm for Obama?
Gallup is forecasting a Republican turnout advantage of 3%. Mitt Romney will win easily if that’s the case.
As of when was that Gallup +3 forecast ? Thought they haven’t come back up yet