Skip to comments.Obama Campaign Shared '08 Polling With Silver (FRAUD!)
Posted on 11/04/2012 10:34:09 AM PST by TigerClaws
As the Democratic primary began to rivet public attention at the end of 2007, political junkies began to develop an obsession with a blogger under the name "poblano" on the liberal DailyKos who was analyzing and merging polling data with unusual sophistication. The anonymous analyst dropped the occasional hint he wasn't involved in politics, but did work with numbers and the next summer came out as Nate Silver, a baseball statistician whose work had taken a similarly probability-focused approach to the sport as he did to politics.
(Excerpt) Read more at buzzfeed.com ...
Silver is walking back his 82% Zero win lock.
And the walkback continues. RT @fivethirtyeight: We have Obama as ~80% likely to win EC if pop. vote is a tie. 98% if O+1. 30% if R+1
To Twitter the twit:
Written agreement with Obama in ‘08 lands him the NYT gig.
Rush said this last week
Is it not likely that the same thing is happening this time ?
They/he are too arrogant to not discount the 2008 turnout not happening this time in their statistical predictions.
I'm surprised he has kept this a secret, not sure why. In 2008 he was just a blogger. I give Axlerod a lot of credit for finding him and hiring him. Having a good statistician on your staff has to be critical to running and winning POTUS.
He should have informed readers though. That's not cool, especially after he went to work for the NY Times.
It's interesting to see Michael Barone come out for Romney so strongly. My suspicion is that he has become irritated by Silver's smug assurance that he knows the outcome of the race. Despite a month of polls breaking Romney's way, Nate has remained steadfast. (Or, his "model" has.)
So another election night showdown looms: battle of the uber-pundits. Who's got the real knowledge, who's got the goods? The grizzled vet of a hundred campaigns who literally wrote the book on American politics, or 'the kid' with his fancy math and computer models?
There can be only one!