[aroostook war]

So true. Well done!

[VanDeKoik]

Every election where the GOP is slated to win is always shown as “too close to call”.

1980

1984 - The press knew Reagan was going to win, but they really just kept the polling talk to a minimum.

1988

2000 - Although the DUI story really put a wrench in it.

2004

And 2012

In the elections where people knew the Dem was likely to win:

1992
1996
2008

Every poll for weeks were always showing the Democrat comfortably ahead. I don’t recall a single time in 1996 where a press dork said it was close.

[JudyinCanada]

Thank you for posting this! I was wondering this morning what the media and the polls were saying just before the Reagan landslide. Amazing that Reagan won, with little or no alternative news sources.

In addition to the list of Carter’s “accomplishments”, I think the biggest factor in his defeat, IIRC, was 17% interest rates. Nobody could buy a house, even up here!

[supremedoctrine]

Just one minor point, for the record:
Carter’s wife was Rosalyn, not Rosemary.

[rashley]

Now, a couple of those terms aren’t bad.

As to predictions, I think Romney gets between 311 and 362. I know that’s a big spread, but I think he could also get Oregon, Iowa, and Maine (or at least 1 EV from there), and will take PA, OH, WI.

[Jack Hydrazine]

NBC wasn’t happy about Reagan’s 1980 win.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsDe-8cOSYY

Dan Rather analyzes Ronald Reagan’s win over Jimmy Carter
(Uncles Walter and Dan not happy campers.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVeAQgxkN3M

[bboop]

Thanks for posting. I, too, was wondering about 1980 and how the media portrayed the election in the weeks preceeding it. Those turkeys.

[erod]

Great, great post I wasn’t around in 1980, but I imagine on Election Day it’s going to be a landslide.

[Frapster]

Fascinating article discussing the discrepancy between polling and the actual results. PDF

[Atlas Sneezed]

Taking OH out of your conclusion, here’s my view.

Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC FL CO IN VA. This yields 257 EVs.

Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:

OH(18)
-or-
PA(20)
-or-
MI(16)
-or-
MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)]
-or-
WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)]
-or-
NH(4) + NV(6) + IA(6)

[LibLieSlayer]

Dejavu will pull us through!

LLS

[Alas Babylon!]

Great vanity!

I've linked to this thread in the Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread.

I was stationed at the Pave Paws down at Otis AFB the night Reagan won. I was actually listening to WBZ on the radio because I was in the Ra-dome that night. Working with some civilians that were tried and true democrats. What long faces!!!

That night was awesome! I'll never forget. I really thought, because of the media, that Carter was going to win. When Reagan won EVEN Massachusetts that night, it was absolutely shockingly great!

1980 Election Map Red=Reagan, Blue=Carter

[conservativefromGa]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paCQ2eAl65E

go to about 1:10 in