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Here’s what I have not been able to figure out for some time — how can Romney be achieving a 9% swing in the RCP poll averages in state after state, but only a 1.7% swing in Ohio? That is not statistically possible.

Let’s look at the movements for Romney by % from 2008 final numbers to current 2012 RCP poll averages:

GA +7
IN + 12
CT +11
NJ + 3.8
NM + 5.1
MO +11
MT +8
OR + 10
MN +5
NV + 10
CO +8
IA + 7
PA +6
WI +9
MI + 13
NH + 8

Average: 8.933% shift to Romney

now let’s get to the real battleground states:

VA +7
NC +4
FL +4.2
OH +1.7

Average: 4.225%

Are you kidding me? These #’s are ridiculous. You cannot have an average shift of 9% nationally and 4.225% in the key states. And the OH #’s are really and truly bizarre.

OH was virtually THE most resistant state to Obama in 2008. There was a 10 point swing nationally from 2004 to 2008 (51 / 48) to (46 / 53) but only a 6.5 point swing in Ohio. But even in 2008, there was a 65% correlative move from the national vote to the Ohio vote. Therefore, if there is an average 9% shift nationally from 2008 to 2012 (that brings us virtually back to 2004 #’s), it is almost inconceivable, without obvious fraud, for Romney to have a 9% swing nationally and less than a 50% correlative swing in Ohio (i.e., a 4.5% swing). Even using an extraordinarily low, and virtually unprecedented low correlation, Obama would get 49.25% in OH and Romney would get 49.4% in OH.

If you assume a 65% correlation going the other way, which, again, is very low on average (but not unprecedented), Romney wins Ohio by 1.4%, or 49.9% to 48.5%, which is about 120,000 votes.

Arec,

You are on the money when it comes to your analysis. I have been working with LS on analyzing some real-time early voting data.

While my analysis is by no means fully complete, early returns seem to show a huge uptick in Republican enthusiasm. Also, I can conclusively prove that the “Independents” in OH are not de-registered Democrats (a favorite talking point of Democrats)

My bottom line is that the Governor will win OH, but with a lower margin than his overall national victory. I say this based on the fact that the President has invested a lot of money in the GOTV effort in OHIO (and not very much in PA ;-))

Seems the pollsters are keeping the swing states closer than the other Liberal states which show erosion for OZero..... for me the election will be won on turn out one county at a time..... McCain was just not the mojo guy nor was he going to win against the ANTI BUSH mantra played by the media. Mitt has handled the MSM as well as one could hope since it is 100% against him daily. It is now up to all of us to do our duty and SAVE THIS LOVELY NATION!

You also have the Team Romney theory that Team Obama is taking reliable voters who would normally vote on elections day, and getting them to early vote...in a way it is similar to burning through cash reserve s to give an appearance.

Romney on the other hand, is trying to get unreliable voters to vote early, and count on the hardcores to show up on Election day. IF that is all true, then Obama probably has the biggest operation of this in Ohio, as does Romney...which could account for some of that appearance different.

In other words, their might be a Romney tidal wave on Election day, and many of those Obama voters ALREADY VOTED.

This of course, puts aside the issue of voting 4 times etc etc.