Let me spell out the (obvious) case why Romney will trounce Obama in Ohio:
1) Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5%. McCain was a terrible, under-funded candidate; Obama was fresh, unknown, and NOT Bush. Four years later, Obama is a known quantity with a bad economic record and a ton of baggage. He obviously is in worse political shape than 2008.
2) Every state that borders Ohio is either overwhelmingly for Romney/Ryan, or is obviously moving in that direction. West Va. dems voted 43% for a FELON in the dem primary in May. Kentucky dems voted 41% “uncommitted” instead of for Obama. Obama won Indiana by a point in 2008; he will lose by 15 to 20 points this year. And now credible polls are showing that Romney is within strking distance in Pa. and Mich. Does anyone reasonably believe that the Ohio border somehow magically seals off the discontent for Obama in bordering states? I don’t think so.
3) The biggest myth about Obama’s 2008 win was that there was this massive turnout for dems. Not so. In fact, Obama rec’d far less votes than John Kerry. There was a precipitous drop-off of working-class white dems in Ohio, and an even bigger drop-off of Republicans and evangelicals. Does anyone reasonably expect that blue collar white dems are going to come roaring out for Obama in 2012. Hell no. He never had these John Kerry-democrats, and he never will get them. Obama’s big problem is that blacks, students, young people, etc. won’t post, which is what we are seeing in the early vote numbers.
4) Obama is weaker with every demographic. He will lose a small percentage of jewish votes around Cleveland and Cincinnat; his gay marriage stance will cost him a small sliver of black votes; conservative Catholics in Southern Ohio are ticked off about the contraception mandate. Please, someone out there name me one demographic group that Obama is doing better with in 2012? White, female reporters who work for MSNBC?
5) Ohio is a Republican state. Republican candidates in Ohio always outperform the national polls by 2 to 3 percent.
6) I’m from Cincinnati, but in I live in the DC suburbs. Obama is playing non-stop abortion and gay rights ads on Northern Virginia radio. His campaign obviously sees that turnout among the young dingbats is dicey. Imagine what we would be thinking if Romney were running pro-life and pro-gun ads in the week before the election.
So, please, everyone stop worrying about Ohio. Just get out and vote.