Why? I cite the following reasons:
1) Americans--especially in suburban and rural areas--are rapidly tiring of Obama's domestic and foreign policies. The huge loss of jobs, the persistently high U-6 unemployment/underemployment rate and high energy prices have effectively stunted what should have been a robust recovery from the 2008 stock market crash.
2) Obama pushed through Obamacare, which will result in higher medical insurance premiums, smaller selection of health care providers, and more taxes to pay for it.
3) Obama has effectively stopped the expansion of exploitation of American energy resources, especially our huge reserves of coal and newly-discovered huge reserves of oil and natural gas found by new production methods.
4) Enthusiasm for Romney is huge, as noted by the gigantic turnout at every political rally Romney has attended (so much so that there are huge numbers of people having to be turned away!). Meanwhile, the 2012 rallies for Obama has been reduced to very small fraction of the size of the 2008 rallies for Obama.
5) Voters in suburban and rural areas are overwhelmingly in support of Romney. This will effectively erase the advantage of support of Obama in urban areas in almost every "battleground state."
6) The GOP voter base is hugely energized this time around to vote out Obama, since the GOP get out the vote effort is much more effective in 2012 than in 2008.
That’s good analysis and I hope you are correct.
In the end, I personally think Romney will win in a shockingly decisive fashion—possibly as high as 335 Electoral College votes at minimum.
Why? I cite the following reasons:
1) Americans—especially in suburban and rural areas—are rapidly tiring of Obama’s domestic and foreign policies. The huge loss of jobs, the persistently high U-6 unemployment/underemployment rate and high energy prices have effectively stunted what should have been a robust recovery from the 2008 stock market crash.
2) Obama pushed through Obamacare, which will result in higher medical insurance premiums, smaller selection of health care providers, and more taxes to pay for it.
3) Obama has effectively stopped the expansion of exploitation of American energy resources, especially our huge reserves of coal and newly-discovered huge reserves of oil and natural gas found by new production methods.
4) Enthusiasm for Romney is huge, as noted by the gigantic turnout at every political rally Romney has attended (so much so that there are huge numbers of people having to be turned away!). Meanwhile, the 2012 rallies for Obama has been reduced to very small fraction of the size of the 2008 rallies for Obama.
5) Voters in suburban and rural areas are overwhelmingly in support of Romney. This will effectively erase the advantage of support of Obama in urban areas in almost every “battleground state.”
6) The GOP voter base is hugely energized this time around to vote out Obama, since the GOP get out the vote effort is much more effective in 2012 than in 2008.
That’s real good analysis and I hope and pray you are correct.
But the Friday downturn in the Rasmussen national poll is scary—and I think directly linked to Chris Christie’s remarkable Quisling act.
The fact is, that last 10 percent of the electorate are the ones who whine about politicians in Washington “getting along” and all that naive jazz.
And even Romney’s finishing stump speech this week consumes about half of the effort on the “reaching across the aisle” shuck and jive—because he understands these people are ALWAYS “up for grabs” in their muddled thinking.
I’m hoping the ground game obviates this nitwit demographic in any case, but the nitwits are many and Christie (who certainly wants to run in 2016 and could care less about anything else) played them like a fiddle last week.
I mean, he proved himself to be a real cunning piece of sleaze.
Great analysis!
I said I wouldn’t watch the morning shows but I turned on Meet the Depressed on ...like driving slowly past a car wreck.
Partisan HACKS!
Gregory, Brokaw, Savannah what’s her name..
BUT they are all saying at the end that the first debate was huge and a game changer for Mittens..so ..okay I’m going out to sign wave.
Fir what it’s worth I’d like to add one more reason.
The polling and the media is using 2008 as their base
line for predictions and positions. They have failed
to take 2010 into account. I believe there is an
undercurrent of voters that will again surprise the
press/media and we’re going to see Romney get close or over
300 votes from the Electoral College. Even at this late in
the game the pollsters are hedging because they know it can,
or will, happen.