Does Barone take into account a much higher incidence of vote fraud than ever before? In previous elections the Democrat vote fraud numbers were probably pretty close to constant. It will be much higher this time. Vote switching by touch screen machines has already been reported from at least 6 states. The switching is all one way, R to D.
You apparently have to depress the Romney button in an exact place that will not activate the default Obama vote on some of these machines. The RNC is already on the cases of these hypersensitive voting machines acting irregularly so I can’t imagine Romney conceding on that basis. It’ll be a long and drawn out nightmare instead.
I am hopeful that because of all the publicity regarding voter fraud that it may be more difficult to carry it off. Here in Iowa we now have a Republican SOS and he has said he will prosecute any poll watchers not authorized to watch. In other words, no UN poll watchers in Iowa.