There does seem to be some tightening of the Indy vote the last week. This is across several polls, including RAS. Whether it is the hurricane or just the normal tightening of the race, I don’t know.
I still believe Romney will with 53-47, due to massive GOTV. But I don’t think we can discount the Indy vote dynamics. The problem with the hurricane from an election perspective, is will it impact the vote. Or is it just impacting the polling?
No matter what people here wish, Obama did get a bounce out of the storm - it also enabled him to move off the wholly negative “Save Big Bird” campaign and look presidential, notwithstanding that his “walkabout” accomplished nothing substantive. I agree that Christie went way overboard, totally unnecessary and damaging, for whatever purpose (it is unlikely that someone of this size has a career in national politics in any event). But I also expect the positive impact of it for Obama to largely dissipate by Tuesday, particularly as the photos of long gas lines, cold weather and angry residents resonate. So, instead of the 52-47 Romney vote I thought likely a few days ago, it would appear to be more likely to be 51-48 or even 50-49. If the last result is the case, I have a real concern that Romney could lose the EV but win the popular vote, given the shakiness of Ohio.
There does seem to be some tightening of the Indy vote the last week. This is across several polls, including RAS. Whether it is the hurricane or just the normal tightening of the race, I don’t know.
I still believe Romney will with 53-47, due to massive GOTV. But I don’t think we can discount the Indy vote dynamics. The problem with the hurricane from an election perspective, is will it impact the vote. Or is it just impacting the polling?
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Thank you for being at least reasonable in responding to my worries about this so-called collapse among indies with Romney.