Chris Wallace had an interview with one of Gallup's polling gurus. Chris was asking him how Gallup weights their D/R/I samples. His answer was that they don't. They ask questions about for whom you're voting, other questions designed to determine if you're a likely voter, and then party affiliation. Didn't see anything about if they subselect their results to normalize age, ethnicity, income, etc.
Pollsters who are subselecting based on party have to choose between 2008's lopsided results and 2010 reversal. Personally, I don't see anything in 2011 or 2012 that would indicate a flip back toward D+7 territory. Anti-Obama forces have not been mollified; If anything, they're more intense as a result of the Obamacare Supreme Court decision.
Gallup is standing out for their R+1 turnout prediction. I hope they're a touchstone; Would love to see a 52-47 and 300+ EVs. It's a weird situation, having so much polling data and no convergence. Personally, I think a pollster weighting anything except a nearly even D/R ratio is playing with fire.
I predict the media will seize on depressed turnout in NY/NY/CT to characterize Obama's downfall as something other than wholesale rejection of his agenda. Those states could cut their turnout in half and 0bama loses no EVs.
The key question, one being ignore by the media, is what is happening in Philly. PA is in play. If the storm impacts eastern PA turnout, it could turn PA red.
One last note: By Tuesday, a lot of NY/NJ voters will have been without power for a week and many will have seen little/nothing from the Federal government except FEMA forms. I don't believe they'll take it out on Romney.
Particularly when they find out that Democrat union bosses turned away help from utility workers who drove their bucket-trucks up from Georgia because they were non-union.
we just need one pict on drudge in the devastated areas of NJ with a sign that reads....”Now we know how the guys felt in Benghazi”