Replies

With the polling response rates down to 9% or less, small organized sectors of the population can appear to be 11 times more numerous than they really are.

Gallup may have found one such group ~ GBLT, or the homosexual lobby. They reported recently that it's their estimate that the GBLT are about 3.5% of the total population, or at least that 3.5% of total respondents to their polls are of that political persuasion.

That's probably 11 times their actual representation, but never mind, let's move on to how they get to be 3.5%, and what does that mean for Brown and Warren.

We know that in Massachusetts all those guys are Democrats. So, out of the 100% of the population the pollster suggests his polling numbers represent, there are 49% supporting Brown, 47% supporting Warren, and 3.5% GBLT supporting somebody? How about this, they're supporting Warren and are part of that 47%.

Stripping the overcounted GBLTs out of the results, that'd be Brown with 49%, and Warren with 43.5% ~ and another half percent scattered here and there.

That's a pretty good lead for Brown ~ A LANDSLIDE

There's not enough unaccountable numbers for Warren to pull out a surprise victory ~ total toast city!