[ScottinVA]

I’m thinking the data behind these two statements are why Romney ventured into PA:

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Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.

Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Crap.

[TonyInOhio]

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots

You see, this is why polls are unreliable, even one as meticulous as Rasmussen. The actual early vote is at about 29% of expected turnout, not 40%, and that early vote has been concentrated in Democrat-leaning counties, as a result of the Obama campaign emphasis on early voting. These numbers just aren't accurate.

[Ravi]

At most 1.5 million votes have been cast. Gmu shows 1.25 as of 10/30. Turnout will be 5.7 million. Mark my words 5.7 million. 1.5 million out of 5.7 million is 26% not 40%.

It helps to have hard data when interpreting early vote percentages. All polls have been off with regards to the amount of early votes being cast. People are obviously lying to pollsters by saying they have voted when they havent.

[fortheDeclaration]

Yea, he was up 2% yesterday, but now is even so he decided to go to PA-that makes sense.

The GOP is going to win Ohio.

[JediJones]

I’m thinking the data behind these two statements are why Romney ventured into PA

PA is a Hail Mary by any measure. He should be using WI, CO and NH to make up for losing OH.

[prov1813man]

If nobama is up 15 in early voting and 9 w independents how is it a tie ?

[Tennessean4Bush]

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead. Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Crap.

Believe me when I say that this poll actually spells doom for Obama. Forty percent of OH voters did not say they have already cast their ballots. Forty percent of the OH voters in this poll's sample say they voted. This is actually good news. Why? Because we can apply this poll sample to actual numbers. The actual numbers say that only 29% of OH voters have actually cast their ballots. So, right away you see a structural flaw. The poll's sample of those who have already cast their ballots is skewed incorrectly by including too many who have already voted. That would be okay if that sub-sample looked pretty close to the total sample in preference. But, alas, it does not. That skewed sub-sample is highly Democratic leaning at the rate of 56-41%. This means Romney is set to take the lion's share of the election day vote. So, you give Obama 56% and Romney 41% of the early and absentee vote (which looks like it will come in around 1.7MM) and you get 952K votes for Obama and 697K votes for Romney. If you split the difference between the total vote in 2008 and 2004 to project the total vote in Ohio for 2012, you come up with about 5.650MM (5.625MM in 2004, 5.680MM in 2008). Subtract the 1.7MM from the 5.650MM and determine your election day votes cast and you get 3.950MM. If Romney captures 53% and Obama 44% of that (which is what this poll says he will), then Romney takes 2.094MM votes on election day, and Obama takes 1.738MM. Final tally: Romney 2.790MM and Obama 2.690MM. About a 100K vote differential - or about what Bush beat Kerry by in 2004. But, actually, the story is MUCH better than that. We know a little more about the early and absentee votes in Ohio than just total numbers. Some of the Freepers on this thread have shown many times how the actual early vote party affiliation is much more GOP than it was in 2008 and Obama is well under-performing his early vote count (as measured by party affiliation - we don't know actual votes obviously). Some have suggested that it is on the order of about a 200K net swing when compared to 2008. This means that Romney could carry it by closer to 200K or more votes, or about 4%, which is what LS has been predicting if I remember correctly. This further amplifies the bias inherent in the poll. And, it shows that on election day, the votes are not going to be there for Obama. If you look at Cuyahoga County, which alone gave the election to Obama in 2008, by producing a net differential for Obama of well over 200K votes, you see that it is underperforming in early voting by a significant percent. He is not going to get a 200-250K vote margin out of Cuyahoga in 2012. This OH thing is overblown. The state polls are off - even Rasmussen. Romney is going to take OH and will probably get PA and >300 EVs.