Posted on 10/31/2012 4:51:06 PM PDT by tsowellfan
A crucial element: the mix of Democrats and Republicans who show up this election.
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.
He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.
The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.
For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting...
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Romney is going to have additional human beings voting for him on Tuesday. I’m not a particular fan of early voting but start making way for additional votes for Romney.
Rove may or may not be right but this election and I’d predict that future elections will NOT depend on these beltway Republicans. Time we moved on and ignore most of these folks and get government in control.
by the people!
(before I was cut off)
I have more faith in Rove’s constrained and conservative analysis than in Dick Morris’ view. 51-48 is a clear win and good enough to keep the lawyers out of it.
Rove is like a stale fart that lingers in the room. RINO Moron.
The excerpt chopped the key paragraph:
Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
Quinnipiac and PPP can keep up their fantasy polls, but the fact that Obama's winning margin in 2008 has been wiped out in early voting this time means Romney is the favorite to win Ohio and the election.
The popular vote will be the same split as 2008:
Romney - 52.9%
Obama - 45.7
He was attacked on here because he predicted a Obama win including Florida and NC and people wanted his head.
He seems to be fair even though he’s a GOP-e man.
Sounds like 2004, which came down to one state: Ohio. Not sure my nerves can handle that again.
I think his analysis is premature until we see whether or not the Kenyan’s “hurricane bounce” is fleeting or more permanent.
Had the hurricane not occurred, I would say Rove is 100% on the money here.
It still may prove to be correct, and I too am seeing a very close Romney win, but I personally am going to track the polls a couple more days before I am ready to make a definitive final prediction.
"as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election".
R's up vs '08 already by 257K.
Over here, gents! Rove confirms, with data, everything we’ve been seeing on the ground in Ohio for a month or better.
I am not attacking him because he is wrong but because he expresses the ideas of the Beltway Republicans which may or may not be accurate (but usually wrong when it comes to the Conservative ideas). I contend that he is an anachronism and will be forgotten in time as Conservatives take over the Republican Party. Of course I could be wrong in which case, we will be stuck with so called liberal Republicans inside the Beltway controlling us and the electorate for years to come. I do expect the Tea Party to eventually control Washington or it may not matter anyway as we slide toward Greece.
Maybe that is just a hope instead of a prediction.
He was attacked on here because he predicted a Obama win including Florida and NC and people wanted his head.
He seems to be fair even though he’s a GOP-e man.
Whew. Got hairy there for a while with “concern” trolls pounding me every day. SoftwareEngineer had the same experience. Ravi, you too?
What’s with the double post minutes in between?
Oh I don’t think you’re attacking him but I was just pointing out in 2008 he played it fair and had Obama winning and was poo-pooed on here over it.
:shrugs:
I don’t know. Ask the admin. I don’t run this place or it’s server. I only posted once.
Sorry.
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