1. The Ohio Poll always leans Left (always), and this one has a screwy sample; 2. An incumbent under 50% six days before Election day IS GOING TO LOSE; 3. The GOP has significantly overperformed in the absentee and early vote game, negating Obama's advantage; 4. Ohio always votes to the right of the national popular vote tally - if Romney is at 50 nationally, he'll get 51 or better in Ohio.
There are more reasons, but those are enough. Romney will carry Ohio 51-49 or better.
Oh do I hope and pray that you are right.