Obama Buys One Week of Ads in Michigan

Michigan is now at least in play, as I am told by reliable sources that the Obama campaign is buying a week’s worth of television ads in the Detroit market. Mark Halperin is hearing the same things.

This is an ad purchase aimed at securing Michigan; it is not aimed at crossing into Ohio or any other state. Detroit’s radio market runs into Monroe County which borders the Buckeye State, but it does not cross over, as some metropolitan media markets do.

This is the eleventh-largest media market in the United States and one of the more expensive ones, particularly compared to the smaller cities that make up most key swing state markets.

It is possible to get Toledo TV stations in Detroit.

Now that is from the days before cable was widely available.

Maybe the local cable distributors don’t put Toledo stations on in Michigan any more, but yes, it is possible to get the signal.

People in Detroit know the truth about the bailout. Problem is most of those who saw past bankruptcies are long since retired and have largely died or moved away.

Plus there’s the fact that much of the auto industry is outside Detroit with relatively few of the employees coming from Detroit.

Much of what you have in Detroit are the fully ruined sons and grandsons of people who worked in the industry.

I love the quote from the Obama spokesman in justifying the expenditure: “We’re matching states where they go up. We’re not going to let them make a play anywhere.”

Now let’s think about that for a moment. They have scarce resources. If Romney stupidly started pouring money into, say, California or Texas, the Obama campaign would not follow them, because those states are decided already. If the other campaign is putting money where it won’t make a difference, you’re not going to put your money up to match it.

Now if Romney poured a ton of money into Iowa, of course the Obama campaign would respond with a similar effort — it’s a close state and could be decisive.

If Obama had unlimited resources, a huge dollar advantage, then he might follow up Romney spending anywhere, but all indications are that the money is fairly even on the two sides.

Obama’s campaign is only going to follow Romney’s lead on expenditures in states where Romney’s expenditures could cause damage to Obama’s chances.

If Michigan was in the bag for Obama, they’d be glad to watch Romney waste money there that could be spent elsewhere. That’s not what they’re doing. They’re concerned that a Romney push could flip the state. They may think it unlikely, but they’re effectively diverting $2M from 50/50 states to a state like Michigan.

And that means they’re concerned about Michigan. The line from the Obama campaign that they’re following Romney’s spending everywhere is just spin.

Michigan has been sliding to the right for nearly a decade now anyway. In 04 John Kerry only won over Bush by around 4%. (probably considerably less if you discount some blatant Detroit fraud) 08 was a historic fluke with Obama and idiot McCain all but said, Michigan ain’t worth my time”.

In 2010 we ran the table and the democrats didn’t win a single seat above the county level and the GOP holds the whole deck of cards outside the two US senate seats and the minority democrat US house delegation.

It is interesting that Obama would buy Detroit. He has that demgraphic pretty well locked up and yes, the Detroit TV will reach the Toledo market either over the air or via cable.

He would be better off buying WJR radio as it targets his demo: 25-52 and is always a force in the Toledo Arbitron ratings. This would also get him the Toledo fringe which includes areas east towards Cleveland, South to at least Findlay, and west to almost the Indiana line. WJR is a 50K watt powerhouse. While known as a conservative station that is owned by Cumulus Media it carries Paul W Smith and Frank Beckman in the morning, then goes national with Rush and Hannity till 5.

If he’s buying Detroit, his internals must tell him that he is in trouble, the west side of the state is traditionally conservative and only the large union towns of Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Flint help him carry the state.

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