ping
Very decent analysis. Links to analysis by others too
While this is a good article I think this one is better at getting to the actual nuts and bolts of why Silver is dreaming. http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan
Early voting 08: 10,440
Early voting 12: 14,798
Breakdown=D 5600, R 1100, I 3300
I did the following breakdown, assuming Ds=.95% intensity (i.e., Ds vote for Obama), Rs=.95% intensity; Is split for Romney by a mere 6 points.
Those numbers are 5152D , 1023R. Add 1452 Is to Ds and 1848 to Rs.
This is a 56-44 split. I don't know the split for county's numbers for early voters in 08, but this seems like a win for us if statewide Zero won early voting by 20 and he only won the state by 6, meaning Romney is sitting on an 8 point lead over the 08 ev levels. Obama won by 6.
Anecdotal evidence from people who are in the election HQ every day say that the D voters are NOT the "low propensity" types who were basically herded to the polls in 08, bussed in, etc., but rather seem to be the high propensity voters who won't be voting on election day. In short, to GET that 12-point EV lead, they have cannibalized their election day turnout. As one observer told me, "I see an awful lot of white men in business suits, and I don't think those are Obama voters."
Karl Rove discovered that 57% of the absentee voters had not voted in one of the three previous elections . . . but of the Rs who are early voting, 72% had not voted before.
In other words, we are getting most of our voters from people who are new to elections, the Ds---getting 40% of theirs from "regulars."
Finally, just today there appears to be a pretty big surge of R voters---some estimate "hundreds," so these numbers may be well obsolete already.
Early voting 08: 10,440
Early voting 12: 14,798
Breakdown=D 5600, R 1100, I 3300
I did the following breakdown, assuming Ds=.95% intensity (i.e., Ds vote for Obama), Rs=.95% intensity; Is split for Romney by a mere 6 points.
Those numbers are 5152D , 1023R. Add 1452 Is to Ds and 1848 to Rs.
This is a 56-44 split. I don't know the split for county's numbers for early voters in 08, but this seems like a win for us if statewide Zero won early voting by 20 and he only won the state by 6, meaning Romney is sitting on an 8 point lead over the 08 ev levels. Obama won by 6.
Anecdotal evidence from people who are in the election HQ every day say that the D voters are NOT the "low propensity" types who were basically herded to the polls in 08, bussed in, etc., but rather seem to be the high propensity voters who won't be voting on election day. In short, to GET that 12-point EV lead, they have cannibalized their election day turnout. As one observer told me, "I see an awful lot of white men in business suits, and I don't think those are Obama voters."
Karl Rove discovered that 57% of the absentee voters had not voted in one of the three previous elections . . . but of the Rs who are early voting, 72% had not voted before.
In other words, we are getting most of our voters from people who are new to elections, the Ds---getting 40% of theirs from "regulars."
Finally, just today there appears to be a pretty big surge of R voters---some estimate "hundreds," so these numbers may be well obsolete already.