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I'd start off giving Romney 180 EVs from the states that McCain won in '08. There is absolutely no evidence that Obama can win any of them at all.

So Romney needs 90 EVs from states that Obama won in '08 to reach the magic 270. It's conventional wisdom now that he wins Florida (29), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Indiana (11). That totals 68, so he needs 22 more from the list of states still in doubt. With toss-up Ohio (18), he needs only four more which he could get with little New New Hampshire (4) or any other toss-up state. But even without Ohio, there are several possible combinations of three or four states that add up to the 22 he needs. Since he has a fairly decent shot in Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Nevada and there is a possibility he could even get a surprise win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon or Minnesota, I'd say that the odds of a Romney electoral college win nationally are better than the 44.18% that you indicate.

Dick Morris is thinking pretty much along the same lines, even more bullish on Romney's chances.

BTW, it is statistically very highly unlikely that a three-point leader in the national popular vote (which R0omney has now pretty much maintained for a week in Rasmussen and even Gallup) can lose the electoral college.

Perhaps you're right. My analysis is not based on my suppositions of the lay of the land, it's only based on the polls that Rasmussen has published.

So far, based on Rasmussen polls to-date, Romney's probability of getting 270 Electoral votes or more is 44%.

I may post a mid-week report this week if things change drastically before Saturday.

-PJ

“BTW, it is statistically very highly unlikely that a three-point leader in the national popular vote (which Romney has now pretty much maintained for a week in Rasmussen and even Gallup) can lose the electoral college.”

With respect to you, I don't think that is true. It doesn't matter how many millions you have for Romney in already known red states and doesn't matter how many millions Hussein has in already known blue states - it DOES matter if you have a majority for Romney in a swing state, even it is one vote that makes that a majority in order to get those electoral votes.

I really only care about states that are not decided at this time so close to the election.