Skip to comments.Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest
Posted on 10/26/2012 6:41:23 PM PDT by Arthurio
Most polls at this moment suggest GOP nominee Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama.
So heres a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency by winning 270 votes or more in the electoral college?
I think its a 50/50 possibility or more, said Mark McKinnon, who was a political strategist for former president George W. Bush.
If the election were held tomorrow, it wouldnt just be a possibility, it would be actual, added William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who also served as a policy adviser to former president Bill Clinton.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Landslide. The split thing went in the toilet about 6 months ago.
I gotta say that I would be getting a full 8 hrs of sleep (rather than 6) if the state polls looked just a tiny bit better. :0)
I don’t think this will happen.
In fact I think it may be more likely that Obama could win the popular vote due to states like California going overwhelmingly for him and then losing the electoral college
That said. I think Romney wins about 52% or more of the popular vote.
It’s all slipping away for Obama....so they are holding onto this, for now. It’s amazing how many people in the media don’t know how to break down the internals in a poll, or do not want to.
I just saw a CA poll released today that has Obama at 53%.
Hooray for made up crap stories! I’ll go with the landside thing.
The undecideds will break for Mitt here in the next week. Rove said Romney would be tied in Ohio this past week and take the lead this upcoming. He was right so far.
It is not likely to happen, but if it does there are remedies to ensure that Romeny wins the election.
This is just the final media gyrations to keep the people engaged. All these stories of a 269/269 tie, Harry Reid as VP, and all sorts of highly unlikely scenarios are all they have left to keep it interesting. Given where we are, with serious Romney momentum and a flailing Democrat campaign, it is unlikely the popular vote and electoral vote are split. Possible, but unlikely.
No, this election is not over, because Ohio is undecided, and other states pivotal to Romney to win despite Ohio are close, too. Assuming an undecided break to the challenger (which is near gospel among true experts), Romney would likely win if the election was today. Either way, I don’t expect a split...if Romney gets the kind of popular vote percentage it shows, there is almost no way he would not win the EV, too. If Obama is able to win the EV, it probably means their GOTV is highly successful and the popular vote goes too.
And monkeys might fly out of my butt...
More circle jerk fantasy by Obama fans in the media. Look, six or eight weeks ago they told us Obama was a shoo in.
Now they’re facing the fact that their hero Zero is tanking. Momentum for the Liar is going down faster than a two dollar crack whore, and they cannot handle it.
..for someone so specific about a "split" he sure isn't sure about the "or so" states
Folks, if this Libya thing keeps growing the only AllRed that we’ll be talking about on Nov. 7th may not relate to Gloria.
(For those who don't know, La Cienaga Boulevard is said by many to be the north-south "dividing line" between some of the richest parts of Los Angeles County to the west and everything else to the east. West of La Cienaga are the towns of Beverly Hills, the nearby Bel Air gated community, Westwood, Santa Monica, Culver City, Century City, West Los Angeles, Brentwood, Marina del Rey and Malibu--the home of many entertainment celebrities and entertainment executives. It's also among the most "blue" areas of California, despite the extreme wealth of the area.)
Lol-—except Obama way down in CA. . . For a lib. He’s barely carrying Oregon.
He won Oregon 57-40 last time. If Oregon is within 5 points, he will be crushed nationwide.
With a "normal" media maybe, but as of today only Fox & ABC's Tapper are following the Libya fiasco/cover up. Look at NYT and WaPo sites, nary a mention.
That certainly seems to be logical. Like everyone else, I’d probably call the election right now if we could get one solid poll lead in OH-—but that’s precisely why they won’t call OH. It’s all over when they do, not just th election but the need for pollsters.
How many different posts have you made today about this idiotic liberal fantasy?
That 1876 election was an odd one. Hayes won by a single electoral vote in an election where 20 EVs were disputed after Election Day and ended up being formally awarded to Hayes after a court battle.
The issue is that only a small part of the country was subjected to the negative anti Romney barrage over the summer. If he loses there, but does much better than expected in states like CA, PA, CT, etc. .(but still falls short), that’s how you’d end up with a split.
Historically speaking, the odds of a split are low.
I wonder why they didn't use Clinton's first name here? BTW, William Jefferson Clinton NEVER got 50% of the vote.
I meant in his two presidential elections.
If Romney wins the popular vote. He gets CA’s electors. With those he wins the EC vote as well I’d bet.
This will send Zero and co running to the courts to get CA’s system over turned.
But it won’t matter. Romney will carry both the popular and ec votes.
Clinging to their delusions.
I agree about a split, but it will be about 57/42/1 and the EC votes will be Romney 300+.
Just scare talk. Not gonna happen. I predict 1 hour after the polls close Romney will be declared the winner. We are having the sister and brother in law over for Costco pizza and some two buck chuck to watch Chris Matthews commit suicide on MSNBC. LOL!!!!
Look across the river in New Jersey, where college educated whites dominate (Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris) Romney won. He lost the ethnic Asian and Jewish suburbs in Bergen and Middlesex, along with the blue collar white suburbs near Philadelphia (so much for blue collar white Catholics being "natural conservatives").
College educated single women and Asians are a problem, however, although the latter are overwhelmingly concentrated in Cali, Hawaii, NY, NJ, etc. Yuppie/hipster whites may be a common site in New Brooklyn and Portland, but are a tiny minority of the white electorate as a whole. The Democratic share of the white vote is shrinking, not growing. We needto see how we can get more whites in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and PA to vote GOP.