Posted on 10/26/2012 6:43:11 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Thanks for sharing this insider/ paid for data.
Generous of you, and greatly appreciated to remove some of the non details reported on the news channels.
I believe this. Because it has always been a tied race on ideological base, i.e. 95/5 Rs voting Romney, 95/5 Ds voting Obama.
But now Rasmussen has 95/5 Rs voting Romney, while 85/13 Ds voting Obama.
That’s a big drop off of base for Obama. And now with Indies pulling away for Romney, if it were still a D+3, Romney would be up 53-47.
It's a messy number. Some people register with one party, change their loyalties, then vote the other party, but never change registration.
Party ID is according to what people SAY at the time of the call. It may or may not be an accurate number. In open primary states, there is no incentive to keep party registration accurate. You have self-identified Democrats who haven't voted for a Democrat in 20 years, so these "high numbers" for "Democrat" voters may in fact be accurate.
Some interesting tweets from NumbersMuncher.
If Rasmussen had same party ID weighting as yesterday, Romneys lead would have jumped from 3 pts to 4.44 points today. Either 50-46 or 51-46
8:51am - 26 Oct 12
Rasmussen has Romney still up 3, 50-47. Romney up 17 among indys. Ras moved sample to *about* D+6 to keep it a 3 point race.
8:35am - 26 Oct 12
Why, because the whole country is gearing up for Mitt to be the NEXT President. You can feel it in the air. People don't have a sliver of faith in Obama even if they like him! This Benghazi thing ought to be the demise factor in both Obama and Clinton!
I won't predict the outcome of the election, but right now, Mitt is kicking Obama's ass! Everyone knows it and the MSM are trying to quell the momentum with these STUPID, biased, Dem over sampled, underhanded polls!
See post #44
Rasmussen is screwing with his turnout model to keep it a close race. He moved it to around D +6 today to keep it at Romney +3.
I don’t understand how Romney can be sweeping the independents (17% advantage) and yet barely ahead. That is why I think these polls are all bogus. Obama’s support with democrats has weakened from 2008. Romney is doing fine with Republicans. So a 17% advantage with independents out to put Romney at least 5 points, IMHO.
Where did this myth start, that only punkie Democrats use cell phones and Republicans are just old fuddy-duddys who only use land lines?
Which is confirmed, so far, in the early voting data available from Ohio. Adrian Gray (Bush pollster) has been tracking it closely, and tweeted this earlier today:
OHIO in one tweet: 220k fewer Dems have voted vs 2008, 30k more GOP. That's net 250k. Obama won by 260k in '08. Now 11 days left.
This is huge - McCain actually won the majority of votes cast on Election Day in 2008, and some polling has shown Romney with a 10 point lead amongst voters who intend to vote in-person; if Obama does not have a significant lead from early voting by November 6th, he is toast.
Oh, nad one more tidbit - Rasmussen will show Wisconsin tied this morning. :)
Looks like Romney’s debate strategy was pitch perfect.
We all would prefer to see blood in the water, but by the 3rd debate, the campaigns know where things sit in the polling, and strategize to win the remaining votes. Obama is losing, Romney is winning, period.
Finally Boehner wakes up and calls for O to address Bengazhi.
Can you provide a link? Because I call BS,,
Can you provide a link? Because I call BS,,
Down -5 wiaath women, but up how much with men?
Because his media clients want a "horse race", and he needs to monkey around with the numbers enough to be close to reality while keeping the spread tight enough to be interesting.
That has both good and bad consequences.
On the good side, it keeps our side energized,
on the bad side, it keeps their side from growing despondent over the inevitable.
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