I did an analysis last night based on old statistics of past 4 elections, subtracting %D Obama got from the avg %D, minus 2% for minority turn-out in 2008, calling it O-factor, adding O-factor to %R (% core Republican) McCain got in 2008, and I predict follows:
Romney will win CO, FL, IA, NH, OH, VA, Wis.
And he might win the follows if turn-out is low (Hurrican Sandy will helps us some here.):
Mich, Minn, NV, OR, PA,
All my projected numbers at all states were confirmed well with at least one recent poll number from Real Clear Politics. You can do the same by looking at the old stat from:
http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
And verify with one of the polls from RCP.
Romney will get at least 295 votes for a win.
It is scary to think what Obama will be capable after Nov 6th.
Several posters have made mention of “Hurricane Sandy” having an effect on the election. This storm if it occurs is a coastal one and even then it is scheduled to be here and gone by next Wednesday the 31st of October which is still a week before the election.
I don’t see any effect of this storm on turnout with MAYBE the exception of those not so motivated staying home in the case of disruption in the power supply, downed trees not cleaned up, etc.
Those highly motivated as the Right appears to be will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. I know I will.