Posted on 10/22/2012 8:48:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For some months, I have been predicting that Romney would not only win but win big. I have a number of lunches and other small wagers riding on the outcome, so I have been cheered by Team Romney’s meteoric rise in the polls recently.
I understand the wisdom of Yogi Berra’s observation that it’s not over till it’s over. Harold Wilson was surely right that a week is a long time in politics.
Still, while not exactly counting the chickens before they hatch, I am drawing up a menu that features poulet for the main course. I think there will be plenty to go around.
How much, exactly? Well, now we enter the realm of the parlor game. But I observe that people actually pay good money to places like the Gallup organization to do this sort of thing, so I thought I would take a shot at it too.
The lay of the land will be a lot clearer, I suspect, Monday at 11:01 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. And I will have occasion to return to this theme from time to time and offer updated guesses (for between you and me, Kemo Sabe, that’s what we’re talking about in all this commentary about the election, guesses). But for now, here’s how I see things shaking out. It will be much quicker to list the states that I think Obama will win, adding alongside the number of Electoral College votes they command. Starting from beyond the Left coast:
Hawaii (4)
Washington (12)
Oregon (7)
California (55)
New Mexico (5)
Illinois (20)
Michigan (16)
Iowa (6)
New York (29)
Washington, DC (3)
Maryland (10)
Delaware (3)
New Jersey (14)
Connecticut (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Massachusetts (11)
Vermont (3)
Maine (4)
That’s seventeen states and one enfranchised dependent sinkhole for a grand total of 223 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 33 states and 315 electoral votes. I acknowledge that Wisconsin (10) might go to Obama as of course might Ohio (18). But 315 – 28 = 287, i.e., Romney still wins. [Update: I forgot Minnesota: another possible, indeed, likely, 10 for Obama: Romney still gets at least 277.]
There are obviously variations on this scenario. Most that I ponder have Romney winning, and winning comfortably, And let’s not forget that there are other scenarios that put Michigan and Iowa (and maybe even others) into play.
I believe President Obama likes to make guesses about who will basketball games. Here’s my first entry into a kindred psephological pastime.
Question: WILL OBAMA REALLY WIN IOWA?
“0”
On another but related topic has anyone noticed how uncomfortable 0 is when his backside ISN'T being kissed? Anyone notice how 0 had to run to the revolting and fawning Dave Letterman to get the familiar feel of lips on his butt after Romney had the temerity to disagree with him in the debates?
There are people here in Oregon actually talking as if it could be a TOSS UP state.....I doubt it, but it sure would be SHWEEETTT!!!!
RE: I’m not sure the annointed one will lose Ohio
No one has lost Ohio and won the presidency since... Lincoln.
If the anointed one wins Ohio, it’s hello President Obama again till 2016 ( by which we’ll see if d’Souza’s movie is accurate ).
It would be turning water into wine if California actually did NOT go for Obama. Please give us a tiny speck of hope here on the West Coast. We live vicariously through the hope in the states to the right of us.
You forgot to add the “mysterious 7 states”, to bring it up to 57.
I never understood why the Republicans concede California. While it would be impossible to win the whole state as the vote rules stand now - winner take all - they should be fighting to change Califonia to apportion the electoral college votes. Usually, almost half of California voters vote for the Republican nominee. That could be about 25 of the 55 electoral votes.
Some rich Republican needs to sponsor a ballot initiative to change the California process. It would be easy, just throw all the liberal talking points back at them. FAIRNESS - COUNT ALL VOTES, HAVE ALL VOTES COUNT - VOTERS ARE BEING DISENFRANCHISED.
polls show Florida mighty close.
*********************************
Florida won’t be close ,, I’d love to know how many ex-Obama voters the pollsters turn away when they find them “not likely to vote” ... they must be making huge numbers of calls to find enough “likely’s”..
Hawaii (4)
Washington (12)
California (55)
Illinois (20)
New York (29)
Washington, DC (3)
Maryland (10)
Rhode Island (4)
Massachusetts (11)
Vermont (3)
Maine (3) {one may flip to Romney}
That's 154 for certain, plus a high probability of Delaware (3), New Jersey (14), and Connecticut (7) for a total of 178.
And that's only an improbable best case scenario for the country if we have a 1980s style blow-out because we have gotten that much stupider since then.
“Polls” might show Florida close but believe me it’s RED!
Of all the states in all the geographical locations to enact gay marriage I thought Iowa would be one of the last. But they did it. So they are unreliable ever after.
Why did you leave out Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico and Michigan?
I certainly hope so. Romney is no conservative, but I'm not sure we'd recognize the country after four more years of the annointed one
I dispute MI, IA amd ME. I think Romney gets at least 1 in Maine and the momentum in both MI and IA is toward RR. It may be too little too late but neither state’s a lock nobama.
Just early voted here in Tennessee which, by the way, Romney will win by a landslide. Talked to the election officals and they said they have never, ever seen this many people early voting before.
Marsha Blackburn, Bob Corcker, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan will carry this state big time....! Tennessee is becoming more and more conservative as time passes.
We will probably have a conservative super majority in the state gov. which should be great for our state.
From what I have been reading, I think Florida will definitely go Red...!
We salute our west coast conservative brethren. Have a 99-100% turnout at the polls and flipping enough Indies. What else is there?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.