Rep. Walsh will easily win. All of the voters, in the new 8th Dist., have a republican congressman, Walsh, Dold, Roskam, or Hultgren. The majority of those voters have a republican state senator, Pankau, Murphy, or Dillard.
Phil you are the only person I know of who thinks Walsh will win “easily”. The guy is damaged, being outspent, and barley won in first place in a better district.
I hope one of those state Senators not named Dillard runs against Suckworth in 2014 when she will probably be the most vulnerable freshman rats.
The slight saving Grace here is the seat is still GOP-leaning but with a rat trend.
Using close enough estimation we can get the real partisan lean of these new IL seats tossing out the absurdly large Obama victories.
IL-8 would be 51% Bush in 2004.
IL-10 (Dold) just 45% Bush, as has been mentioned
IL-11 (Biggert) 47%
IL-17 (Schilling) Just 44%
Biggert has the best chance to win out of the 4.
I hope I’m wrong and you are right.
Talk of these retreads winning has me worried about the IL-13th’s rat David Gill. IL 13th Comfortable 53% Bush estimate.
Different estimates from some democrat on the Dave Leip board http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158333.0
They have the 8th 50-48 Kerry, and the 13th 50-47 Bush.
With new GOP territory the third CD is tantalizing (or would be against a moonbat dem not Lipinscki) but likely ought of reach thanks to the CHI machine.