I agree. I think what Raz is doing is playing it safe and not upsetting the partisan left.
In 2004 the party id was D+1.5 and the turnout was Even with a far less enthusiasm gap than today.
Today the party id is R+4.5 and the turnout will be D+4 with a stronger enthusiasm gap? I don’t think so. Makes no sense.
Pollster seem not to be able to account or are poor at accounting for voter apathy or voter enthusiasm.
Today the party id is R+4.5 and the turnout will be D+4 with a stronger enthusiasm gap? I don’t think so. Makes no sense.
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I don’t think so either. I do believe that Raz needs to see that R+4.5 either hold or grow through September and October and at that point he will adjust his Turnout Model to be more favorable to our side.
But don’t forget, that R+4.5 is a high water mark for the GOP and it seems unlikely to be sustained through November 6. We don’t have the Rasmussen results for September yet but they should be out next week and I expect they will get a lot of attention here at FR.