What you say is true but:
1) historically the independents have broken for the challenger
2) across the swing states it looks like large numbers of these independents have actually changed their registration from Democrat to Independent since 2008 (and not from Republican to Independent). Kind of shows you about the way they lean politically.
3) poll after poll show Romney having a lead with independents
Did you read in my post that indies would break for Obama? NO! Actually I agree with your points in your post.