[bcsco]

BS!

[aruanan]

Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

Scott Rastaman has been smoking something. Reagan was tremendously outpolled even on the very eve of the election and he destroyed Carter. He even took Illinois. The current polls have to over-sample Democrats and employ 2008, not 2010, Democrat voter turn out numbers just to keep Obama and Romney neck and neck. Fewer people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans. About twice as many Americans describe themselves as conservatives as liberals. There's a shrinking number of self-identified Democrats and a growing number of self-identified Republicans. The number of "Hey, let's give Obama a chance and see what he can do" voters will be drastically reduced. The number of "I'm a college student voting for hope and change" voters will be sharply down. The number of "I voted for Obama because I don't want people to think I'm a racist" voters will be seriously eroded by the "I said I voted for Obama because I didn't want people to think I'm a racist but this guy has completely effed us over so I really voted for Romney" voters.

[Red Steel]

Ras national poll has a Dem +2.5% to 4% turnout model over Rs for 2012.

I think it will be at least even (like 2004) to R +2%.

Rasmussen last self partisan ID of R +4.3% (37.6%) over Dems (33.3%) with a sample size of 15,000.

Rasmussen ignores his month to month partisan poll because he has already set his baseline for this election.

[PghBaldy]

From what I’ve read, this is usually the case- does NOT mean that Obama will win. Republicans are more motivated this year.

[personalaccts]

WVA has a 3 to 1 Democrat advantage and Obama won’t win that state

[TheOldLady]

*Puff, puff, pant, pant, drool*

“Obama’s ahead! He’s gonna win!! We in the mainly slimy media are just waiting for his giant October Surprise to clench the deal!!! It’s gonna be a doozy!!!!”

*Puff, puff, pant, pant, drool*