Posted on 09/28/2012 7:08:55 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We[**] got a guy out there doing just that, and the link to his spreadsheet is here.
Executive summary: the process is ongoing, and whats being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots. So its not telling us whos ahead in Ohio; its merely telling us what we know of which partys members are asking for ballots. In other words, its a possible measure of voter enthusiasm in Ohio. So
2012 | 2008 | % of 2008 | |
Total | 601208 | 740725 | 81% |
Democrat | 177155 | 288270 | 61% |
Republican | 145560 | 144300 | 101% |
Cuyahoga | 159572 | 231497 | 69% |
D Cuyahoga | 86274 | 119891 | 72% |
R Cuyahoga | 38134 | 35067 | 109% |
Hamilton | 61253 | 102796 | 60% |
D Hamilton | 9793 | 16763 | 58% |
R Hamilton | 18304 | 23677 | 77% |
Summit | 39056 | 92941 | 42% |
D Summit | 9581 | 43524 | 22% |
R Summit | 7525 | 12857 | 59% |
The above shows first the total absentee/early ballot requests of all counties currently reporting*, for both 2008 and 2012; followed by the current totals for three of the top five most populous counties in Ohio (full information is not yet available in [Republican] Franklin and [Democratic] Montgomery counties). So, in 2008 the total absentee/early ballots for all counties currently captured by the linked spreadsheet was just under 741 thousand; the 2012 equivalent so far is currently 601 thousand, or 81% of 2008′s total. And when you look at the partisan breakdowns… simply put, the Democrats are not requesting absentee ballots at the same rate as Republicans are. Of the three counties listed above, only Hamilton is particularly Republican… yet Cuyahoga Democrats have yet to reach their 2008 numbers while the Republican numbers have, and it may still end up that Summit county Republicans will surpass the Democrats there. In fact, if this trend continues then total Republican early/absentee ballot requests in Ohio may surpass total Democratic ballots; it is uncertain whether the Democrats will match their 2008 totals, while the Republicans very probably will.
Shorter executive summary: what we know of early/absentee ballot requests in Ohio does not support the current narrative that Ohioan Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about voting in 2012 as they were in 2008. This in turn does not support the current narrative that the Democrats will do better in Ohio in 2012 than they did in 2008.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*This is an important caveat: there are considerably more counties out there that still need to report in. This report indicates that there were a total of 1.72 million absentee/early voters in Ohio in 2012; clearly the process has a way to go.
What also needs to be mentioned is that many of those ballot requests were not made by individual Democrats, but Democrat operatives, which probably indicates an even lower enthusiasm amongst the Democrats.
Well, I just hope that the Republican operatives aren’t doing the same thing.... just saying.
Looks like the start of the only poll that actually counts.
"Absentee ballot requests in Ohio are favoring democrats"
They probably are, to some extent.
Historically, it’s always been the Democrats that would actively get people to got by the busload. Republicans have always relied on individual voters.
BTW, to those who are not familiar with Ohio, Cuyahoga County is part of Greater Cleveland, a HUGELY Democratic section of Ohio.
This was the Presidential election result in 2008:
DEMOCRATS 68.50% 441,836
REPUBLICANS 30.44% 196,369
That’s indeed almost exactly the margin of victory for Obama: 258,000 votes.
While. We use Jay’s numbers here, I think our analysis and comments on the other thread are far superior to this guy’s.
Poll ping.
It’s nice to see the improvements in percentages, but the raw vote totals still show Democrats ahead. Ohio still elects Presidents by popular vote, no?
Third, this still doesn't include a bunch of counties that went huge for McCain. In other words, there isn't one piece of good news here for Obama.
Sorry, I see you we’re referring just to this other mini-chart, which doesn’t include key R counties in the analysis.
No problem. I appreciate your analysis and postings, but I just want to make certain I understand them and that the data backs them up. GIGO.
Exactly, and I WANT people to examine the #s and make sure we have solid stuff. If you want on the “big” spreadsheet ping list, contact Freeper Jet Jaguar.
Bttt
LS, I believe this effort will pay off going forward in election after election. We can’t let these MSM liars get away with it.
Jet jaguar, please add me to your list for the polling analysis. I’d like to take a look and make sure we’re spot on. Thanks.
We must beat liberals, along with Seatopians and the whole utopian elite! ;-]
The MSM is toast. If they wanted to talk to me about anything I would tell them to get bent. I sure as hell don’t purchase any product they represent. This Nation was built on truth, they have taken a once needed element and turned it against us.
I have newspapers from the NY Times during the Civil War. They reported facts, no spin. It was rough.
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