Can someone explain to me how the national tracking polls are so close, yet Mittens is still losing in most of the vital swing states?
Who cares if the national polls are a dead heat if Mitty can’t win Ohio and Florida and Virginia?
Every electoral map I’ve seen shows Prince Hussein (swine vomit be upon him) at around 230-240 and Mitty at 180-190, and the math being that Mitty will have to pick up almost every swing state to win.
Maybe the state polls are lagging the national ones, but if that’s the case then the electoral maps should start showing better for Mitty, and so far I haven’t seen it.
Swings states always lag behind.
For example, when Obama got his big bounce following DNC and was up 5 in Ras, and 7 in Gallup, the swing states still showed the race tied. (So the question then was: How is leading so much in the national polls but tied in swing states?).
Now that the bounce is gone and the national polls are tied, the swing states are still incorporating the bounce factor.The larger sample in a particular state has not yet flushed out the bounce. Just the way it’s always worked, historically.
Because they are cooking the state polls too. Polls that don’t use the 2008 turnout models show Romney ahead in FL, VA, NC, OH and CO, which is enough to win.
I haven’t seen anyone compare the swing state results in the 2010 elections, to the current polls. Nationwide the Republicans swept many state legislatures and governorships, is that massive conservative turnout wave going to be different in 2012? I don’t think so.
Anecdotally, I work do bridge maintenance in Oregon. In 2008 Obama stickers and yard signs were EVERYWHERE. Yesterday while flagging on a busy road, I saw 2. A Toyota Prius (A PRIUS!) drove by with a RR sticker! I think without a Saddam Hussein style rigged election (which is possible) Obama is completely toast.