I tend to think you are right. I am pretty confident about Virginia and Ohio. I am least confident about Pennsylvania.
I just think that because How much oversampling is being done in these states. The dems always tell us what they are afraid of. Losing these states are what they are afraid of.
I think poll manipulation is their last hope. Suppress votes for R/R by making the voters feel like its a lost cause and Obama has already won.
I have a lot of relatives in Ohio. My brother told me that nobody he works with is voting for Obama this time. And he said this from asking around at an IBEW union meeting.
He works as a boiler operator in a coal fired power plant. Those guys are siding with R/R and the coal miners.