[BlueStateRightist]

If MI is close why aren’t R/R killing in OH?

[LS]

As I recall, last couple of OH polls we’re split, but when adjusted for 2012 levels, Romney is up at about the MOE.

[Catsrus]

Because the strongholds of Ohio are Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland. The majority of Ohio is conservative, but we can’t get past these urban cities and their Democratic voters. Plus, I’m ashamed to say this, but my fellow Buckeyes are stupid.

[Cruising For Freedom]

If MI is close why aren’t R/R killing in OH?

I don't care what anybody says, the polls this year are the strangest I've seen. It's not "omg McCain's gonna win" denial that I had in 2008, the polls are strange even when taken at face value. If O is winning MI by only 1.5%, then R is going to win OH, VA, FL, WI, CO, etc., period.

It does seem like that almost every state is showing a foundation for a blowout, except for a few battleground states. Have seen some competitive NJ + CT polls as well.

IMO, one of three explanations are possible:

1. For whatever reason, Obama is doing way better than Romney in the battlegrounds, enough to move about 10-15% of the electorate that would normally vote for Romney.
2. Polls in the battleground states are inaccurate because of pollster bias. Generally it's not NYT that's polling in second and third tier strategy states.
3. Voter exposure and fatigue, or lack thereof, disproportionately affects poll responses. I hear people are getting up to 10 calls from Obama + Romney in the battlegrounds. In that case, you can choose which are the more representative polls, the battlegrounds or the non-battlegrounds.

[WOSG]

That is a great question.

Polling variances is a part of the equation.