New Michigan Pol: 0 46%, R 44%

RCP ^

[America_Right]

I have a lot of relatives in Ohio.

Same here. My Dad lives in SE Ohio, and he doesn't know ANYONE who supports 0. He was a big union guy, and knows a lot of other union guys who will NOT vote 0 this time. Most of his surviving family lives there, and none of them are voting 0 this time - his brothers are all big union guys, too.

All of these people supported 0 last time, except Dad who always votes for whomever the NRA endorses. :)

[America_Right]

Because the strongholds of Ohio are Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Are you sure about Cincy? I don't think it has fallen yet. 2008 was an outlier - southern Ohio Repubs voted 0 that year in large numbers. It won't happen this time.

I think the only lib strongholds in OH are Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo. Otherwise, all conservative. Now, I am just going by what I remember. I left Dayton in 1996 and knew 2 Democrat voters (both stoners).

[Cruising For Freedom]

If MI is close why aren’t R/R killing in OH?

I don't care what anybody says, the polls this year are the strangest I've seen. It's not "omg McCain's gonna win" denial that I had in 2008, the polls are strange even when taken at face value. If O is winning MI by only 1.5%, then R is going to win OH, VA, FL, WI, CO, etc., period.

It does seem like that almost every state is showing a foundation for a blowout, except for a few battleground states. Have seen some competitive NJ + CT polls as well.

IMO, one of three explanations are possible:

1. For whatever reason, Obama is doing way better than Romney in the battlegrounds, enough to move about 10-15% of the electorate that would normally vote for Romney.
2. Polls in the battleground states are inaccurate because of pollster bias. Generally it's not NYT that's polling in second and third tier strategy states.
3. Voter exposure and fatigue, or lack thereof, disproportionately affects poll responses. I hear people are getting up to 10 calls from Obama + Romney in the battlegrounds. In that case, you can choose which are the more representative polls, the battlegrounds or the non-battlegrounds.

[aheckle]

Was this one poll or an average of polls?

[SamAdams76]

I agree that the polls are wackier than usual this year. How can a Republican be down 2 in MI but down 5 in OH? It's just not possible due to demographics alone. I think these battleground polls have a lot of special sauce in them. Oversampling Dems and over-inflating the undecided/prefer another candidate column. I have a feeling that anybody who says "I'm not crazy about Romney but I suppose I'll vote for him because it sure won't be Obama" are getting put into that column, taking votes away from Romney and making it look better for Obama.

I've seen outlier polls have that Romney within 5 in NJ and I'd like to see a reliable poll for MA. I think that due to the Scott Brown senate race and the hometown factor for Romney, Massachusetts is going to be much closer for Romney than people would think.

The voter turnout in 2008 was D+7 and the polls we are seeing are weighted that way. Fact is, the 2012 turnout is going to be more like R+2 (based on 2010) and that is a 9 point swing towards Romney that is not being reflected in these bogus polls.

[Cruising For Freedom]

Hugh Hewitt had an excellent interview with the Marist pollster, which answers a lot of allegations about bias: http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f36ec71e977 (Note, he implies ARG+Ras don’t use cell phones. ARG uses cell phones, Ras uses a selectively tailored online focus group to make up for cell phones.)

I don’t see any reason for this guy to intentionally lie + fudge his Marist polls. I think that for whatever reason, pollsters are really calling and getting ridiculous D+10 unweighted samples in the battlegrounds.

However, in 2008, the huge D weightings were precedented by a large number of “red flags” supporting their veracity. Massively increased D registration, massive D enthusiasm, large numbers of Republicans crossing over to vote for Obama. None of these signs are present this year.

IMO, it’s at least partially voter fatigue from getting 10 calls from O+R campaigns a day, that prevents Republicans from being reached in battlegrounds.

I’ve heard the same anecdotal stories out of MA as well. Perhaps it’s best that nobody seriously polls MA lest that the media try and make a demoralizing campaign out of it.

[WOSG]

That is a great question.

Polling variances is a part of the equation.

[fortheDeclaration]

We aren’t going to lose Ohio or Vir.